{"schema_version":"1.0","generated_at":"2026-11-01T03:33:29Z","gameweek":10,"deadline":"2026-11-06T18:30:00Z","n_players":669,"n_rows":669,"n_sims":10000,"source":"https://sidelinequant.com/data/gw/10","produced_by":"Sideline Quant","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Sideline Quant","terms":"Free to use, quote and redistribute, including commercially, with attribution to Sideline Quant and a link to https://sidelinequant.com."},"notes":["Rows are at fixture grain. A player with two fixtures in the gameweek has two rows; sum xP over a player's rows for their gameweek total.","xP is an expectation over simulated minutes states (the player's own chance of starting, being substituted or not appearing) rather than a per-90 rate multiplied by expected minutes.","Every row carries p_start and e_mins. Read them before treating a low-ownership player as a differential: an unowned player with a low start probability is unowned for a reason.","This feed covers the next gameweek only. Multi-gameweek planning, chip timing and the squad optimiser are at https://sidelinequant.com/optimiser."],"model_accuracy":{"mae":2.4385,"rmse":3.1892,"n":1466,"population":"predicted E[minutes] > 60 (n=1466 of 5119 player-fixtures)","gameweeks":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8],"comparison":{"baseline_label":"Last season's points per game","n_shared_rows":1152,"n_excluded":314,"population":"reference arm's predicted E[minutes] > 60, imposed on every arm (n=1152 of 3247 player-fixtures); players with a prior-season appearance only","metrics":[{"key":"mae","label":"MAE","direction":"lower_is_better","model":2.4992,"baseline":2.5683},{"key":"rmse","label":"RMSE","direction":"lower_is_better","model":3.247,"baseline":3.3478},{"key":"spearman","label":"Spearman rank correlation","direction":"higher_is_better","model":0.2418,"baseline":0.131},{"key":"p6_auc","label":"Haul AUC, 6+ points","direction":"higher_is_better","model":0.6535,"baseline":0.5788},{"key":"p10_auc","label":"Haul AUC, 10+ points","direction":"higher_is_better","model":0.6568,"baseline":0.5969}]},"populations":[{"key":"all_rows","label":"Every player-fixture with a prediction","conditioning":"prediction","n":5119,"mae":1.1556,"rmse":2.0943},{"key":"predicted_any_minutes","label":"Predicted E[minutes] > 0","conditioning":"prediction","n":4366,"mae":1.3543,"rmse":2.2675},{"key":"played","label":"Played at least one minute (selected on the outcome)","conditioning":"outcome","n":2420,"mae":1.9983,"rmse":2.9152},{"key":"likely_starters","label":"Predicted E[minutes] > 60","conditioning":"prediction","n":1466,"mae":2.4385,"rmse":3.1892}],"detail":"https://sidelinequant.com/performance"},"columns":{"player_id":"FPL element id. Stable across the season; join key to the official game.","fixture_id":"FPL fixture id. Rows are at fixture grain, so a double gameweek is two rows.","gameweek":"FPL gameweek number.","name":"Full player name.","web_name":"Short display name, as FPL renders it.","club":"Player's club.","team":"Player's club (same value as `club`).","position":"GK, DEF, MID or FWD.","price_tenths":"Current FPL price in tenths of a million (96 = £9.6m).","kickoff_time":"Fixture kickoff, ISO 8601 UTC.","opponent":"Opposition club in this fixture.","was_home":"True when the player's club is at home.","xP":"Expected FPL points for this fixture. An expectation over simulated minutes states, not a per-90 rate scaled by expected minutes.","sigma":"Standard deviation of this fixture's simulated points.","gw_sigma":"Standard deviation of the player's gameweek points total, summed across their fixtures in the gameweek.","gw_p10":"10th percentile of the simulated gameweek points total (a realistic floor).","gw_p90":"90th percentile of the simulated gameweek points total (a realistic ceiling).","horizon_sigma":"Standard deviation of the player's points total summed over every gameweek the model currently covers (not just this one).","horizon_p10":"10th percentile of the simulated points total over the whole horizon.","horizon_p90":"90th percentile of the simulated points total over the whole horizon.","xp_cond_start60":"Expected points if the player starts and plays 60+ minutes.","xp_cond_start_lt60":"Expected points if the player starts but goes off before 60 minutes.","xp_cond_cameo":"Expected points if the player comes off the bench.","e_mins":"Expected minutes.","p_start":"Probability the player starts.","p_start60":"Probability the player starts and plays at least 60 minutes.","p_start_sub":"Probability the player starts but is substituted before 60 minutes.","p_cameo":"Probability the player appears as a substitute.","p_unused":"Probability the player does not appear at all.","startsub_mean":"Model's fitted average minutes for a start that ends before 60 minutes (this export's own estimate).","cameo_mean":"Model's fitted average minutes for an appearance off the bench.","status":"FPL's own availability flag (a available, d doubtful, i injured, s suspended, …).","chance_of_playing_next_round":"FPL's own percentage chance of playing the next round, when FPL has set one.","news":"FPL's own news text for the player, when there is any.","p_goal":"Probability of scoring at least one goal.","p_goals_2plus":"Probability of scoring two or more goals.","p_assist":"Probability of at least one assist.","p_cs":"Probability of a clean sheet for this player (conditional on playing 60+ minutes).","p_return":"Probability of a goal or an assist.","p_defcon":"Probability of hitting the defensive-contribution points threshold.","p_ge_6":"Probability the gameweek points total is 6 or more.","p_ge_10":"Probability the gameweek points total is 10 or more (a haul).","bonus_mean":"Expected bonus points.","xbps_mean":"Expected BPS (the score bonus points are awarded from).","xg_mean":"Expected goals for the player in this fixture (mean over the simulation).","xa_mean":"Expected assists for the player in this fixture (mean over the simulation).","total_points":"FPL points actually scored so far this season.","xp_appearance":"Expected points from minutes played (the appearance points).","xp_goals":"Expected points from goals scored.","xp_assists":"Expected points from assists.","xp_clean_sheet":"Expected points from clean sheets.","xp_conceded":"Expected points lost to goals conceded (zero or negative).","xp_saves":"Expected points from saves.","xp_penalty_save":"Expected points from penalty saves.","xp_penalty_miss":"Expected points lost to missed penalties (zero or negative).","xp_defcon":"Expected points from defensive contributions.","xp_cards":"Expected points lost to yellow and red cards (zero or negative).","xp_own_goal":"Expected points lost to own goals (zero or negative).","p_card":"Probability of at least one yellow or red card.","form":"Mean points over the player's last four gameweeks. Not FPL's own 30-day form.","l4_gws":"How many gameweeks form and the other last-four fields cover (four or fewer).","starts_l4":"Starts over those gameweeks (a double gameweek can count two).","mins_l4":"Minutes played over those gameweeks.","xp_l4_gws":"How many of those gameweeks have the model's last pre-deadline prediction.","xp_l4":"The model's pre-deadline expected points summed over those covered gameweeks.","pts_vs_xp_l4":"FPL points actually scored minus xp_l4, over the same covered gameweeks.","owned_pct":"Percentage of all FPL managers owning the player.","elite_10k_owned_pct":"Percentage of a stratified sample of overall top-10k managers owning the player.","elite_10k_eo_pct":"Effective ownership in that top-10k sample: owned plus captained, as a percentage. A triple captain counts as a captain: the chip was played in the sampled gameweek, not this row's.","elite_10k_captain_pct":"Percentage of that top-10k sample captaining the player.","elite_1k_owned_pct":"Percentage of the sampled overall top-1k managers owning the player.","elite_1k_captain_pct":"Percentage of the sampled overall top-1k managers captaining the player.","elite_delta_pct":"elite_10k_owned_pct minus owned_pct, in percentage points.","price_change_percent":"FPL's own progress towards the player's next price change, as a signed percent.","price_change_as_of":"When that price state was captured, ISO 8601 UTC.","price_change_direction":"Which way the counter is heading: rise or fall.","price_change_expected":"True when the counter is past the change threshold tonight.","price_change_locked":"True when FPL has price-locked the player (new to the game).","price_change_season_tenths":"Price change since the season started, in tenths of a million.","price_change_per_hour_pct":"Captured net-transfer rate, in the same percent units as price_change_percent, per hour.","price_change_projected_pct":"Where the counter is projected to stand at tonight's change point, assuming the current rate holds (FPL's own assumption).","price_change_projected_tenths":"The model's expected price change over the next three change points, in tenths of a million. An expectation, so fractional.","lambda_home":"Model expected goals for the home side in this fixture.","lambda_away":"Model expected goals for the away side in this fixture.","p_cs_home":"Model clean-sheet probability for the home side.","p_cs_away":"Model clean-sheet probability for the away side.","d_lambda_home":"Change in lambda_home over the odds-drift window.","d_lambda_away":"Change in lambda_away over the odds-drift window.","d_p_cs_home":"Change in p_cs_home over the odds-drift window.","d_p_cs_away":"Change in p_cs_away over the odds-drift window.","drift_from_ts":"Start of the odds-drift window, ISO 8601 UTC.","drift_to_ts":"End of the odds-drift window, ISO 8601 UTC.","pen_taker":"True when the player is first-choice penalty taker.","corner_taker":"True when the player is first-choice corner / indirect free-kick taker.","fk_taker":"True when the player is first-choice direct free-kick taker.","rates_source":"Where this fixture's team rates came from: market odds, or the team model.","has_unseen_team":"True when a club in this fixture has no played matches to fit on yet.","shrinkage_weight":"How much the player's scoring rates lean on the prior rather than his own minutes: near 1 is mostly prior (little data), near 0 his own record."},"rows":[{"player_id":21,"fixture_id":94,"gameweek":10,"name":"Christian Nørgaard","club":"Everton","position":"MID","price_tenths":48,"team":"Everton","xP":0.5811,"sigma":1.305918370343214,"p_start60":0.04669167281443472,"p_start_sub":0.023962440254490323,"p_cameo":0.2921449288820608,"p_unused":0.6372009580490142,"e_mins":10.668687659680561,"p_start":0.07065411306892504,"p_cs":0.0172,"p_goal":0.0163,"bonus_mean":0.0196,"shrinkage_weight":0.9780872698981307,"kickoff_time":"2026-11-06T20:00:00Z","opponent":"Coventry 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