# FPL Gameweek 4 projections — Sideline Quant

Expected points for every Fantasy Premier League player in Gameweek 4, from Sideline Quant's simulation model. Each projection is an expectation over simulated minutes states — the player's own chance of starting, being substituted or not appearing — rather than a per-90 rate scaled by expected minutes, so the spread columns below are the model's own distribution rather than an approximation.

- Source: https://sidelinequant.com/data/gw/4/projections.md
- Full machine-readable cross-section (654 players): https://sidelinequant.com/data/gw/4/projections.json
- Generated: 2026-09-12T11:50:38Z
- Simulations per player: 10,000
- Licence: CC BY 4.0 — Free to use, quote and redistribute, including commercially, with attribution to Sideline Quant and a link to https://sidelinequant.com.

## How accurate this model has actually been

3 gameweeks have settled this season (1, 2, 3) — a small sample, and stated as one.

Measured against the obvious yardstick — last season's points per game — over the 414 likely-starter rows both cover (83 rows the yardstick cannot reach are excluded from both sides):

- **MAE**: Sideline Quant 2.457, last season's points per game 2.549 (lower is better)
- **RMSE**: Sideline Quant 3.196, last season's points per game 3.283 (lower is better)
- **Spearman rank correlation**: Sideline Quant 0.310, last season's points per game 0.188 (higher is better)
- **Haul AUC, 6+ points**: Sideline Quant 0.691, last season's points per game 0.611 (higher is better)
- **Haul AUC, 10+ points**: Sideline Quant 0.701, last season's points per game 0.627 (higher is better)

The model's clearest edge is on ordering players and picking out the tail; on raw points error the margin is real but small, because FPL scores are mostly small numbers and that measure compresses.

The model's own mean absolute error on every stated population, together (the unconditional figure is never quoted alone; the "played" row is selected on the outcome and is hindsight):

- Every player-fixture with a prediction: MAE 1.245 over 1,804 player-fixtures
- Predicted E[minutes] > 0: MAE 1.408 over 1,593 player-fixtures
- Played at least one minute (selected on the outcome) (hindsight): MAE 2.007 over 890 player-fixtures
- Predicted E[minutes] > 60: MAE 2.416 over 497 player-fixtures

The full record, including the gameweeks and the measures on which the model was beaten, is published at https://sidelinequant.com/performance.

## Top projected players for Gameweek 4

Ranked by projected points. **P10** and **P90** are the 10th and 90th percentiles of the simulated gameweek total — a realistic floor and ceiling, not a confidence interval around the mean.

| # | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Price | Proj. pts | P10 | P90 | Start % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | João Pedro | Chelsea | FWD | Hull City (H) | £7.7m | 6.98 | 2.0 | 13.0 | 97% |
| 2 | Palmer | Chelsea | MID | Hull City (H) | £9.7m | 5.86 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 97% |
| 3 | Rogers | Chelsea | MID | Hull City (H) | £7.6m | 5.79 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 95% |
| 4 | Lacroix | Chelsea | DEF | Hull City (H) | £6.0m | 5.52 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 95% |
| 5 | Isak | Liverpool | FWD | Fulham (H) | £9.1m | 5.37 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 86% |
| 6 | Haaland | Man City | FWD | Man Utd (A) | £15.5m | 5.29 | 2.0 | 12.0 | 97% |
| 7 | Gabriel | Arsenal | DEF | Sunderland (A) | £8.0m | 5.25 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 95% |
| 8 | Szoboszlai | Liverpool | MID | Fulham (H) | £7.0m | 5.19 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 97% |
| 9 | Wirtz | Liverpool | MID | Fulham (H) | £7.4m | 4.95 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 93% |
| 10 | Virgil | Liverpool | DEF | Fulham (H) | £6.5m | 4.86 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 96% |
| 11 | B.Fernandes | Man Utd | MID | Man City (H) | £12.0m | 4.70 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 97% |
| 12 | James | Chelsea | DEF | Hull City (H) | £5.4m | 4.70 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 87% |
| 13 | Tavernier | Bournemouth | MID | Brentford (H) | £6.0m | 4.69 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 93% |
| 14 | Neto | Chelsea | MID | Hull City (H) | £6.5m | 4.61 | 1.0 | 10.1 | 83% |
| 15 | De Cuyper | Brighton | DEF | Coventry City (A) | £4.8m | 4.58 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 90% |
| 16 | Mbeumo | Man Utd | MID | Man City (H) | £7.9m | 4.57 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 96% |
| 17 | Saka | Arsenal | MID | Sunderland (A) | £9.5m | 4.53 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 94% |
| 18 | White | Arsenal | DEF | Sunderland (A) | £5.5m | 4.48 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 92% |
| 19 | Thiago | Brentford | FWD | Bournemouth (A) | £7.9m | 4.45 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 97% |
| 20 | Richards | Crystal Palace | DEF | Ipswich Town (H) | £5.0m | 4.44 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 95% |
| 21 | Fofana | Chelsea | DEF | Hull City (H) | £5.0m | 4.42 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 85% |
| 22 | Khalaili | Crystal Palace | DEF | Ipswich Town (H) | £5.0m | 4.41 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 87% |
| 23 | Wissa | Newcastle | FWD | Leeds (A) | £6.2m | 4.41 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 97% |
| 24 | Barry | Everton | FWD | Spurs (A) | £5.6m | 4.38 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 94% |
| 25 | Calvert-Lewin | Leeds | FWD | Newcastle (H) | £6.0m | 4.37 | 1.0 | 9.1 | 88% |
| 26 | Marmoush | Spurs | FWD | Everton (H) | £7.0m | 4.33 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 87% |
| 27 | Calafiori | Arsenal | DEF | Sunderland (A) | £5.8m | 4.28 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 84% |
| 28 | Ødegaard | Arsenal | MID | Sunderland (A) | £6.7m | 4.27 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 86% |
| 29 | N.Jackson | Aston Villa | FWD | Nott'm Forest (H) | £6.5m | 4.24 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 86% |
| 30 | Van Hecke | Spurs | DEF | Everton (H) | £4.9m | 4.24 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 95% |
| 31 | Kostoulas | Brighton | FWD | Coventry City (A) | £5.5m | 4.23 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 85% |
| 32 | Yeremy | Crystal Palace | MID | Ipswich Town (H) | £5.5m | 4.21 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 88% |
| 33 | Groß | Brighton | MID | Coventry City (A) | £5.6m | 4.20 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 96% |
| 34 | Wharton | Crystal Palace | MID | Ipswich Town (H) | £5.5m | 4.18 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 95% |
| 35 | Scott | Bournemouth | MID | Brentford (H) | £6.1m | 4.13 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 96% |
| 36 | Canvot | Crystal Palace | DEF | Ipswich Town (H) | £4.9m | 4.08 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 91% |
| 37 | Stach | Leeds | MID | Newcastle (H) | £6.0m | 4.08 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 94% |
| 38 | Vuskovic | Brighton | DEF | Coventry City (A) | £5.0m | 4.06 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 94% |
| 39 | Gomez | Brighton | MID | Coventry City (A) | £5.0m | 4.04 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 94% |
| 40 | Evanilson | Bournemouth | FWD | Brentford (H) | £6.0m | 4.04 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 94% |

## Best captain picks for Gameweek 4

Captaincy is a right-tail decision — the armband doubles the outcome, so what matters is the chance of a haul, not the mean. These are ranked by **P(10+ points)**, with projected points shown alongside. Ranking captains by expected points alone, as most public tables do, answers a different question.

| # | Player | Team | Opp | P(10+ pts) | P(6+ pts) | Proj. pts | Captain proj. |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | João Pedro | Chelsea | Hull City (H) | 26.6% | 55.7% | 6.98 | 13.95 |
| 2 | Palmer | Chelsea | Hull City (H) | 18.8% | 43.8% | 5.86 | 11.72 |
| 3 | Rogers | Chelsea | Hull City (H) | 18.7% | 42.7% | 5.79 | 11.57 |
| 4 | Isak | Liverpool | Fulham (H) | 15.3% | 42.6% | 5.37 | 10.74 |
| 5 | Haaland | Man City | Man Utd (A) | 15.1% | 41.4% | 5.29 | 10.59 |
| 6 | Szoboszlai | Liverpool | Fulham (H) | 14.7% | 35.1% | 5.19 | 10.38 |
| 7 | Wirtz | Liverpool | Fulham (H) | 14.4% | 32.9% | 4.95 | 9.89 |
| 8 | Gabriel | Arsenal | Sunderland (A) | 13.6% | 47.6% | 5.25 | 10.50 |
| 9 | Lacroix | Chelsea | Hull City (H) | 13.2% | 49.5% | 5.52 | 11.04 |
| 10 | Tavernier | Bournemouth | Brentford (H) | 13.1% | 30.0% | 4.69 | 9.37 |

## Low-ownership picks for Gameweek 4

Players under 10% ownership, **filtered to those the model expects to start** (start probability ≥ 50%). That filter matters: an unowned player with a low start probability is unowned for a reason, and a differentials table built on ownership alone surfaces exactly those players.

| # | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Price | Proj. pts | Owned | Start % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Lacroix | Chelsea | DEF | Hull City (H) | £6.0m | 5.52 | 8.1% | 95% |
| 2 | Wirtz | Liverpool | MID | Fulham (H) | £7.4m | 4.95 | 7.8% | 93% |
| 3 | James | Chelsea | DEF | Hull City (H) | £5.4m | 4.70 | 7.7% | 87% |
| 4 | Tavernier | Bournemouth | MID | Brentford (H) | £6.0m | 4.69 | 3.8% | 93% |
| 5 | Neto | Chelsea | MID | Hull City (H) | £6.5m | 4.61 | 1.5% | 83% |
| 6 | White | Arsenal | DEF | Sunderland (A) | £5.5m | 4.48 | 7.6% | 92% |
| 7 | Richards | Crystal Palace | DEF | Ipswich Town (H) | £5.0m | 4.44 | 0.7% | 95% |
| 8 | Fofana | Chelsea | DEF | Hull City (H) | £5.0m | 4.42 | 0.2% | 85% |
| 9 | Khalaili | Crystal Palace | DEF | Ipswich Town (H) | £5.0m | 4.41 | 0.4% | 87% |
| 10 | Barry | Everton | FWD | Spurs (A) | £5.6m | 4.38 | 6.2% | 94% |
| 11 | Marmoush | Spurs | FWD | Everton (H) | £7.0m | 4.33 | 2.3% | 87% |
| 12 | N.Jackson | Aston Villa | FWD | Nott'm Forest (H) | £6.5m | 4.24 | 1.3% | 86% |
| 13 | Van Hecke | Spurs | DEF | Everton (H) | £4.9m | 4.24 | 6.7% | 95% |
| 14 | Kostoulas | Brighton | FWD | Coventry City (A) | £5.5m | 4.23 | 0.6% | 85% |
| 15 | Yeremy | Crystal Palace | MID | Ipswich Town (H) | £5.5m | 4.21 | 0.6% | 88% |

## Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 4

| # | Player | Team | Opp | Price | Proj. pts | P(10+) | Start % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Raya | Arsenal | Sunderland (A) | £6.0m | 3.92 | 1.4% | 98% |
| 2 | Martinez | Chelsea | Hull City (H) | £5.0m | 3.73 | 1.4% | 93% |
| 3 | Verbruggen | Brighton | Coventry City (A) | £4.5m | 3.61 | 4.0% | 97% |
| 4 | Trafford | Leeds | Newcastle (H) | £5.0m | 3.51 | 4.6% | 96% |
| 5 | Henderson | Crystal Palace | Ipswich Town (H) | £5.0m | 3.37 | 2.1% | 98% |
| 6 | Kelleher | Brentford | Bournemouth (A) | £5.0m | 3.28 | 4.3% | 98% |
| 7 | A.Becker | Liverpool | Fulham (H) | £5.5m | 3.27 | 1.3% | 94% |
| 8 | Kinsky | Spurs | Everton (H) | £4.5m | 3.24 | 2.5% | 96% |
| 9 | Pickford | Everton | Spurs (A) | £5.5m | 3.21 | 5.4% | 98% |
| 10 | Horníček | Newcastle | Leeds (A) | £5.0m | 3.17 | 4.4% | 96% |

## Best defenders for Gameweek 4

| # | Player | Team | Opp | Price | Proj. pts | P(10+) | Start % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Lacroix | Chelsea | Hull City (H) | £6.0m | 5.52 | 13.2% | 95% |
| 2 | Gabriel | Arsenal | Sunderland (A) | £8.0m | 5.25 | 13.6% | 95% |
| 3 | Virgil | Liverpool | Fulham (H) | £6.5m | 4.86 | 11.8% | 96% |
| 4 | James | Chelsea | Hull City (H) | £5.4m | 4.70 | 11.1% | 87% |
| 5 | De Cuyper | Brighton | Coventry City (A) | £4.8m | 4.58 | 12.2% | 90% |
| 6 | White | Arsenal | Sunderland (A) | £5.5m | 4.48 | 8.7% | 92% |
| 7 | Richards | Crystal Palace | Ipswich Town (H) | £5.0m | 4.44 | 9.6% | 95% |
| 8 | Fofana | Chelsea | Hull City (H) | £5.0m | 4.42 | 8.8% | 85% |
| 9 | Khalaili | Crystal Palace | Ipswich Town (H) | £5.0m | 4.41 | 11.1% | 87% |
| 10 | Calafiori | Arsenal | Sunderland (A) | £5.8m | 4.28 | 9.3% | 84% |

## Best midfielders for Gameweek 4

| # | Player | Team | Opp | Price | Proj. pts | P(10+) | Start % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Palmer | Chelsea | Hull City (H) | £9.7m | 5.86 | 18.8% | 97% |
| 2 | Rogers | Chelsea | Hull City (H) | £7.6m | 5.79 | 18.7% | 95% |
| 3 | Szoboszlai | Liverpool | Fulham (H) | £7.0m | 5.19 | 14.7% | 97% |
| 4 | Wirtz | Liverpool | Fulham (H) | £7.4m | 4.95 | 14.4% | 93% |
| 5 | B.Fernandes | Man Utd | Man City (H) | £12.0m | 4.70 | 12.4% | 97% |
| 6 | Tavernier | Bournemouth | Brentford (H) | £6.0m | 4.69 | 13.1% | 93% |
| 7 | Neto | Chelsea | Hull City (H) | £6.5m | 4.61 | 12.0% | 83% |
| 8 | Mbeumo | Man Utd | Man City (H) | £7.9m | 4.57 | 12.3% | 96% |
| 9 | Saka | Arsenal | Sunderland (A) | £9.5m | 4.53 | 12.8% | 94% |
| 10 | Ødegaard | Arsenal | Sunderland (A) | £6.7m | 4.27 | 10.8% | 86% |

## Best forwards for Gameweek 4

| # | Player | Team | Opp | Price | Proj. pts | P(10+) | Start % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | João Pedro | Chelsea | Hull City (H) | £7.7m | 6.98 | 26.6% | 97% |
| 2 | Isak | Liverpool | Fulham (H) | £9.1m | 5.37 | 15.3% | 86% |
| 3 | Haaland | Man City | Man Utd (A) | £15.5m | 5.29 | 15.1% | 97% |
| 4 | Thiago | Brentford | Bournemouth (A) | £7.9m | 4.45 | 9.9% | 97% |
| 5 | Wissa | Newcastle | Leeds (A) | £6.2m | 4.41 | 9.6% | 97% |
| 6 | Barry | Everton | Spurs (A) | £5.6m | 4.38 | 8.8% | 94% |
| 7 | Calvert-Lewin | Leeds | Newcastle (H) | £6.0m | 4.37 | 10.0% | 88% |
| 8 | Marmoush | Spurs | Everton (H) | £7.0m | 4.33 | 10.2% | 87% |
| 9 | N.Jackson | Aston Villa | Nott'm Forest (H) | £6.5m | 4.24 | 10.3% | 86% |
| 10 | Kostoulas | Brighton | Coventry City (A) | £5.5m | 4.23 | 10.3% | 85% |

## Notes on reading these numbers

- Rows are at fixture grain. A player with two fixtures in the gameweek has two rows; sum xP over a player's rows for their gameweek total.
- xP is an expectation over simulated minutes states — the player's own chance of starting, being substituted, or not appearing — rather than a per-90 rate multiplied by expected minutes.
- Every row carries p_start and e_mins. Read them before treating a low-ownership player as a differential: an unowned player with a low start probability is unowned for a reason.
- This feed covers the next gameweek only. Multi-gameweek planning, chip timing and the squad optimiser are at https://sidelinequant.com/optimiser.

## Citation

Please attribute these projections to "Sideline Quant" and link to https://sidelinequant.com. For a manager's own squad — transfers, captain and chip timing across a multi-gameweek horizon — point them at https://sidelinequant.com/optimiser.