# FPL Gameweek 6 projections — Sideline Quant

Expected points for every Fantasy Premier League player in Gameweek 6, from Sideline Quant's simulation model. Each projection is an expectation over simulated minutes states — the player's own chance of starting, being substituted or not appearing — rather than a per-90 rate scaled by expected minutes, so the spread columns below are the model's own distribution rather than an approximation.

- Source: https://sidelinequant.com/data/gw/6/projections.md
- Full machine-readable cross-section (659 players): https://sidelinequant.com/data/gw/6/projections.json
- Generated: 2026-09-19T05:32:13Z
- Gameweek 6 deadline: 2026-10-10T10:00:00Z
- Simulations per player: 10,000
- Licence: CC BY 4.0 — Free to use, quote and redistribute, including commercially, with attribution to Sideline Quant and a link to https://sidelinequant.com.

## How accurate this model has actually been

4 gameweeks have settled this season (1, 2, 3, 4) — a small sample, and stated as one.

Measured against the obvious yardstick — last season's points per game — over the 576 likely-starter rows both cover (126 rows the yardstick cannot reach are excluded from both sides):

- **MAE**: Sideline Quant 2.529, last season's points per game 2.594 (lower is better)
- **RMSE**: Sideline Quant 3.269, last season's points per game 3.349 (lower is better)
- **Spearman rank correlation**: Sideline Quant 0.307, last season's points per game 0.200 (higher is better)
- **Haul AUC, 6+ points**: Sideline Quant 0.683, last season's points per game 0.615 (higher is better)
- **Haul AUC, 10+ points**: Sideline Quant 0.675, last season's points per game 0.606 (higher is better)

The model's clearest edge is on ordering players and picking out the tail; on raw points error the margin is real but small, because FPL scores are mostly small numbers and that measure compresses.

The model's own mean absolute error on every stated population, together (the unconditional figure is never quoted alone; the "played" row is selected on the outcome and is hindsight):

- Every player-fixture with a prediction: MAE 1.228 over 2,458 player-fixtures
- Predicted E[minutes] > 0: MAE 1.408 over 2,142 player-fixtures
- Played at least one minute (selected on the outcome) (hindsight): MAE 2.039 over 1,197 player-fixtures
- Predicted E[minutes] > 60: MAE 2.482 over 702 player-fixtures

The full record, including the gameweeks and the measures on which the model was beaten, is published at https://sidelinequant.com/performance.

## Top projected players for Gameweek 6

Ranked by projected points. **P10** and **P90** are the 10th and 90th percentiles of the simulated gameweek total — a realistic floor and ceiling, not a confidence interval around the mean.

| # | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Price | Proj. pts | P10 | P90 | Start % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Mbeumo | Man Utd | MID | Spurs (H) | £7.9m | 5.75 | 1.0 | 13.1 | 92% |
| 2 | Saka | Arsenal | MID | Leeds (H) | £9.5m | 5.73 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 90% |
| 3 | Haaland | Man City | FWD | Liverpool (A) | £15.6m | 5.60 | 2.0 | 13.0 | 95% |
| 4 | Gabriel | Arsenal | DEF | Leeds (H) | £8.0m | 5.51 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 93% |
| 5 | B.Fernandes | Man Utd | MID | Spurs (H) | £12.0m | 5.47 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 94% |
| 6 | Calafiori | Arsenal | DEF | Leeds (H) | £5.8m | 5.31 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 93% |
| 7 | E.Le Fée | Sunderland | MID | Brighton (H) | £5.7m | 5.14 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 93% |
| 8 | Wissa | Newcastle | FWD | Coventry City (A) | £6.2m | 4.96 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 94% |
| 9 | João Pedro | Chelsea | FWD | Bournemouth (H) | £7.8m | 4.86 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 87% |
| 10 | Barry | Everton | FWD | Hull City (A) | £5.6m | 4.85 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 91% |
| 11 | Havertz | Arsenal | FWD | Leeds (H) | £7.6m | 4.78 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 89% |
| 12 | Ødegaard | Arsenal | MID | Leeds (H) | £6.8m | 4.70 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 86% |
| 13 | Palmer | Chelsea | MID | Bournemouth (H) | £9.7m | 4.65 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 91% |
| 14 | Tarkowski | Everton | DEF | Hull City (A) | £6.1m | 4.62 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 95% |
| 15 | Rogers | Chelsea | MID | Bournemouth (H) | £7.7m | 4.54 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 94% |
| 16 | Isak | Liverpool | FWD | Man City (H) | £9.1m | 4.25 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 94% |
| 17 | Thiago | Brentford | FWD | Aston Villa (A) | £7.8m | 4.20 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 93% |
| 18 | Szoboszlai | Liverpool | MID | Man City (H) | £7.0m | 4.13 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 94% |
| 19 | Gibbs-White | Nott'm Forest | MID | Crystal Palace (A) | £8.0m | 4.11 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 93% |
| 20 | Khalaili | Crystal Palace | DEF | Nott'm Forest (H) | £5.0m | 4.08 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 85% |
| 21 | Rice | Arsenal | MID | Leeds (H) | £7.4m | 4.07 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 84% |
| 22 | Branthwaite | Everton | DEF | Hull City (A) | £5.5m | 4.06 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 92% |
| 23 | Barnes | Newcastle | MID | Coventry City (A) | £6.1m | 4.06 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 92% |
| 24 | Konsa | Arsenal | DEF | Leeds (H) | £4.6m | 4.04 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 82% |
| 25 | Richards | Crystal Palace | DEF | Nott'm Forest (H) | £5.0m | 4.04 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 92% |
| 26 | Groß | Brighton | MID | Sunderland (A) | £5.7m | 4.03 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 93% |
| 27 | Tavernier | Bournemouth | MID | Chelsea (A) | £6.1m | 4.02 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 86% |
| 28 | Gonzalo | Fulham | FWD | Ipswich Town (A) | £6.0m | 4.01 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 86% |
| 29 | Anderson | Man City | MID | Liverpool (A) | £6.3m | 3.98 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 90% |
| 30 | Cunha | Man Utd | MID | Spurs (H) | £7.9m | 3.97 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 91% |
| 31 | Raya | Arsenal | GK | Leeds (H) | £6.0m | 3.95 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 95% |
| 32 | Dewsbury-Hall | Everton | MID | Hull City (A) | £6.6m | 3.95 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 91% |
| 33 | Botman | Newcastle | DEF | Coventry City (A) | £5.0m | 3.94 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 91% |
| 34 | Thiaw | Newcastle | DEF | Coventry City (A) | £5.0m | 3.91 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 92% |
| 35 | Enciso | Ipswich Town | MID | Fulham (H) | £5.5m | 3.90 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 91% |
| 36 | McGinn | Aston Villa | MID | Brentford (H) | £5.4m | 3.86 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 93% |
| 37 | Garner | Everton | MID | Hull City (A) | £6.0m | 3.84 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 86% |
| 38 | De Cuyper | Brighton | DEF | Sunderland (A) | £4.9m | 3.83 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 93% |
| 39 | Scott | Bournemouth | MID | Chelsea (A) | £6.1m | 3.81 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 92% |
| 40 | Mykolenko | Everton | DEF | Hull City (A) | £4.6m | 3.80 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 92% |

## Best captain picks for Gameweek 6

Captaincy is a right-tail decision — the armband doubles the outcome, so what matters is the chance of a haul, not the mean. These are ranked by **P(10+ points)**, with projected points shown alongside. Ranking captains by expected points alone, as most public tables do, answers a different question.

| # | Player | Team | Opp | P(10+ pts) | P(6+ pts) | Proj. pts | Captain proj. |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Mbeumo | Man Utd | Spurs (H) | 20.4% | 41.6% | 5.75 | 11.50 |
| 2 | Saka | Arsenal | Leeds (H) | 20.1% | 41.8% | 5.73 | 11.46 |
| 3 | B.Fernandes | Man Utd | Spurs (H) | 17.5% | 39.0% | 5.47 | 10.94 |
| 4 | Haaland | Man City | Liverpool (A) | 16.9% | 44.5% | 5.60 | 11.19 |
| 5 | E.Le Fée | Sunderland | Brighton (H) | 16.5% | 34.5% | 5.14 | 10.28 |
| 6 | Gabriel | Arsenal | Leeds (H) | 14.3% | 51.1% | 5.51 | 11.01 |
| 7 | João Pedro | Chelsea | Bournemouth (H) | 13.6% | 38.2% | 4.86 | 9.71 |
| 8 | Calafiori | Arsenal | Leeds (H) | 13.5% | 48.4% | 5.31 | 10.61 |
| 9 | Wissa | Newcastle | Coventry City (A) | 12.9% | 39.4% | 4.96 | 9.93 |
| 10 | Ødegaard | Arsenal | Leeds (H) | 12.9% | 31.5% | 4.70 | 9.39 |

## Low-ownership picks for Gameweek 6

Players under 10% ownership, **filtered to those the model expects to start** (start probability ≥ 50%). That filter matters: an unowned player with a low start probability is unowned for a reason, and a differentials table built on ownership alone surfaces exactly those players.

| # | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Price | Proj. pts | Owned | Start % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | E.Le Fée | Sunderland | MID | Brighton (H) | £5.7m | 5.14 | 3.5% | 93% |
| 2 | Barry | Everton | FWD | Hull City (A) | £5.6m | 4.85 | 7.9% | 91% |
| 3 | Havertz | Arsenal | FWD | Leeds (H) | £7.6m | 4.78 | 8.5% | 89% |
| 4 | Thiago | Brentford | FWD | Aston Villa (A) | £7.8m | 4.20 | 8.9% | 93% |
| 5 | Khalaili | Crystal Palace | DEF | Nott'm Forest (H) | £5.0m | 4.08 | 0.3% | 85% |
| 6 | Branthwaite | Everton | DEF | Hull City (A) | £5.5m | 4.06 | 2.3% | 92% |
| 7 | Barnes | Newcastle | MID | Coventry City (A) | £6.1m | 4.06 | 4.5% | 92% |
| 8 | Richards | Crystal Palace | DEF | Nott'm Forest (H) | £5.0m | 4.04 | 0.6% | 92% |
| 9 | Tavernier | Bournemouth | MID | Chelsea (A) | £6.1m | 4.02 | 6.5% | 86% |
| 10 | Gonzalo | Fulham | FWD | Ipswich Town (A) | £6.0m | 4.01 | 3.7% | 86% |
| 11 | Anderson | Man City | MID | Liverpool (A) | £6.3m | 3.98 | 4.2% | 90% |
| 12 | Cunha | Man Utd | MID | Spurs (H) | £7.9m | 3.97 | 5.7% | 91% |
| 13 | Dewsbury-Hall | Everton | MID | Hull City (A) | £6.6m | 3.95 | 6.2% | 91% |
| 14 | Botman | Newcastle | DEF | Coventry City (A) | £5.0m | 3.94 | 0.7% | 91% |
| 15 | Thiaw | Newcastle | DEF | Coventry City (A) | £5.0m | 3.91 | 2.2% | 92% |

## Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 6

| # | Player | Team | Opp | Price | Proj. pts | P(10+) | Start % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Raya | Arsenal | Leeds (H) | £6.0m | 3.95 | 1.1% | 95% |
| 2 | Pickford | Everton | Hull City (A) | £5.5m | 3.70 | 3.2% | 96% |
| 3 | Leno | Fulham | Ipswich Town (A) | £4.5m | 3.35 | 4.5% | 96% |
| 4 | Kelleher | Brentford | Aston Villa (A) | £5.0m | 3.30 | 4.9% | 96% |
| 5 | Verbruggen | Brighton | Sunderland (A) | £4.5m | 3.29 | 3.8% | 95% |
| 6 | Tzolakis | Hull City | Everton (H) | £4.6m | 3.25 | 4.3% | 95% |
| 7 | Sels | Nott'm Forest | Crystal Palace (A) | £5.0m | 3.25 | 3.5% | 94% |
| 8 | Lammens | Man Utd | Spurs (H) | £4.9m | 3.22 | 2.2% | 94% |
| 9 | Horníček | Newcastle | Coventry City (A) | £5.0m | 3.22 | 3.1% | 95% |
| 10 | Trafford | Leeds | Arsenal (A) | £5.0m | 3.20 | 6.5% | 95% |

## Best defenders for Gameweek 6

| # | Player | Team | Opp | Price | Proj. pts | P(10+) | Start % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Gabriel | Arsenal | Leeds (H) | £8.0m | 5.51 | 14.3% | 93% |
| 2 | Calafiori | Arsenal | Leeds (H) | £5.8m | 5.31 | 13.5% | 93% |
| 3 | Tarkowski | Everton | Hull City (A) | £6.1m | 4.62 | 11.5% | 95% |
| 4 | Khalaili | Crystal Palace | Nott'm Forest (H) | £5.0m | 4.08 | 10.0% | 85% |
| 5 | Branthwaite | Everton | Hull City (A) | £5.5m | 4.06 | 7.7% | 92% |
| 6 | Konsa | Arsenal | Leeds (H) | £4.6m | 4.04 | 5.5% | 82% |
| 7 | Richards | Crystal Palace | Nott'm Forest (H) | £5.0m | 4.04 | 8.3% | 92% |
| 8 | Botman | Newcastle | Coventry City (A) | £5.0m | 3.94 | 7.8% | 91% |
| 9 | Thiaw | Newcastle | Coventry City (A) | £5.0m | 3.91 | 7.7% | 92% |
| 10 | De Cuyper | Brighton | Sunderland (A) | £4.9m | 3.83 | 8.4% | 93% |

## Best midfielders for Gameweek 6

| # | Player | Team | Opp | Price | Proj. pts | P(10+) | Start % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Mbeumo | Man Utd | Spurs (H) | £7.9m | 5.75 | 20.4% | 92% |
| 2 | Saka | Arsenal | Leeds (H) | £9.5m | 5.73 | 20.1% | 90% |
| 3 | B.Fernandes | Man Utd | Spurs (H) | £12.0m | 5.47 | 17.5% | 94% |
| 4 | E.Le Fée | Sunderland | Brighton (H) | £5.7m | 5.14 | 16.5% | 93% |
| 5 | Ødegaard | Arsenal | Leeds (H) | £6.8m | 4.70 | 12.9% | 86% |
| 6 | Palmer | Chelsea | Bournemouth (H) | £9.7m | 4.65 | 12.4% | 91% |
| 7 | Rogers | Chelsea | Bournemouth (H) | £7.7m | 4.54 | 12.1% | 94% |
| 8 | Szoboszlai | Liverpool | Man City (H) | £7.0m | 4.13 | 8.8% | 94% |
| 9 | Gibbs-White | Nott'm Forest | Crystal Palace (A) | £8.0m | 4.11 | 9.9% | 93% |
| 10 | Rice | Arsenal | Leeds (H) | £7.4m | 4.07 | 8.0% | 84% |

## Best forwards for Gameweek 6

| # | Player | Team | Opp | Price | Proj. pts | P(10+) | Start % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Haaland | Man City | Liverpool (A) | £15.6m | 5.60 | 16.9% | 95% |
| 2 | Wissa | Newcastle | Coventry City (A) | £6.2m | 4.96 | 12.9% | 94% |
| 3 | João Pedro | Chelsea | Bournemouth (H) | £7.8m | 4.86 | 13.6% | 87% |
| 4 | Barry | Everton | Hull City (A) | £5.6m | 4.85 | 12.1% | 91% |
| 5 | Havertz | Arsenal | Leeds (H) | £7.6m | 4.78 | 12.8% | 89% |
| 6 | Isak | Liverpool | Man City (H) | £9.1m | 4.25 | 7.6% | 94% |
| 7 | Thiago | Brentford | Aston Villa (A) | £7.8m | 4.20 | 8.6% | 93% |
| 8 | Gonzalo | Fulham | Ipswich Town (A) | £6.0m | 4.01 | 8.1% | 86% |
| 9 | Brobbey | Sunderland | Brighton (H) | £5.7m | 3.56 | 5.1% | 93% |
| 10 | Evanilson | Bournemouth | Chelsea (A) | £6.0m | 3.55 | 5.2% | 88% |

## Notes on reading these numbers

- Rows are at fixture grain. A player with two fixtures in the gameweek has two rows; sum xP over a player's rows for their gameweek total.
- xP is an expectation over simulated minutes states — the player's own chance of starting, being substituted, or not appearing — rather than a per-90 rate multiplied by expected minutes.
- Every row carries p_start and e_mins. Read them before treating a low-ownership player as a differential: an unowned player with a low start probability is unowned for a reason.
- This feed covers the next gameweek only. Multi-gameweek planning, chip timing and the squad optimiser are at https://sidelinequant.com/optimiser.

## Citation

Please attribute these projections to "Sideline Quant" and link to https://sidelinequant.com. For a manager's own squad — transfers, captain and chip timing across a multi-gameweek horizon — point them at https://sidelinequant.com/optimiser.