{"schema_version":"1.0","generated_at":"2026-10-11T03:32:16Z","gameweek":7,"deadline":"2026-10-17T10:00:00Z","n_players":667,"n_rows":667,"n_sims":10000,"source":"https://sidelinequant.com/data/gw/7","produced_by":"Sideline Quant","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Sideline Quant","terms":"Free to use, quote and redistribute, including commercially, with attribution to Sideline Quant and a link to https://sidelinequant.com."},"notes":["Rows are at fixture grain. A player with two fixtures in the gameweek has two rows; sum xP over a player's rows for their gameweek total.","xP is an expectation over simulated minutes states — the player's own chance of starting, being substituted, or not appearing — rather than a per-90 rate multiplied by expected minutes.","Every row carries p_start and e_mins. 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Multi-gameweek planning, chip timing and the squad optimiser are at https://sidelinequant.com/optimiser."],"model_accuracy":{"mae":2.4927,"rmse":3.2782,"n":890,"population":"predicted E[minutes] > 60 (n=890 of 3117 player-fixtures)","gameweeks":[1,2,3,4,5],"comparison":{"baseline_label":"Last season's points per game","n_shared_rows":720,"n_excluded":170,"population":"reference arm's predicted E[minutes] > 60, imposed on every arm (n=720 of 2020 player-fixtures); players with a prior-season appearance only","metrics":[{"key":"mae","label":"MAE","direction":"lower_is_better","model":2.5241,"baseline":2.577},{"key":"rmse","label":"RMSE","direction":"lower_is_better","model":3.2925,"baseline":3.3664},{"key":"spearman","label":"Spearman rank correlation","direction":"higher_is_better","model":0.2657,"baseline":0.1764},{"key":"p6_auc","label":"Haul AUC, 6+ points","direction":"higher_is_better","model":0.6492,"baseline":0.595},{"key":"p10_auc","label":"Haul AUC, 10+ points","direction":"higher_is_better","model":0.637,"baseline":0.589}]},"populations":[{"key":"all_rows","label":"Every player-fixture with a prediction","conditioning":"prediction","n":3117,"mae":1.203,"rmse":2.1669},{"key":"predicted_any_minutes","label":"Predicted E[minutes] > 0","conditioning":"prediction","n":2692,"mae":1.3918,"rmse":2.3313},{"key":"played","label":"Played at least one minute (selected on the outcome)","conditioning":"outcome","n":1498,"mae":2.0394,"rmse":2.996},{"key":"likely_starters","label":"Predicted E[minutes] > 60","conditioning":"prediction","n":890,"mae":2.4927,"rmse":3.2782}],"detail":"https://sidelinequant.com/performance"},"columns":{"player_id":"FPL element id. 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