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Top-10k picks

Elite 10k Analysis

Track what the current top 10k managers are doing with their teams week by week.

Top 10k

1,000 managers sampled from the live top 10k after the deadline, weighted so the sample stands for all 10,000. Bands and weights are under Method.

Bought and sold

Gameweek 1's 1,000 managers against this gameweek's 1,000. The top 10k is a moving group, so this is the template moving, not 1,000 named managers trading. EO counts a captain twice and a triple captain three times, so it runs past 100. On a share near 30%, a change inside about ±4 points is sampling noise. The last column is the 20 managers held in both captures — churn-free, but at n=20 roughly ±14.

Bought — largest rise in EO
PlayerPosEO last week → nowChangeCaptain changeSame managers (n=20)
B.FernandesMID56.9%217.7%+160.8+82.0+48.0
MbeumoMID45.9%82.8%+36.9-1.9+2.0
Calvert-LewinFWD35.9%70.8%+34.9-0.1-10.0
MaguireDEF23.2%46.9%+23.70.0+2.0
CalafioriDEF70.5%90.1%+19.6-1.90.0
WhiteDEF28.3%45.5%+17.2-0.4-8.0
GroßMID5.0%21.7%+16.70.00.0
ThomasDEF0.7%13.5%+12.80.00.0
SzoboszlaiMID52.1%61.6%+9.5-0.7+2.0
van EwijkDEF1.4%10.3%+8.90.0-6.0
Sold — largest fall in EO
PlayerPosEO last week → nowChangeCaptain changeSame managers (n=20)
VerbruggenGK46.7%5.7%-41.00.0-66.0
PalmerMID64.1%28.7%-35.4-8.6-6.0
João PedroFWD134.5%99.4%-35.1-30.7-12.0
De CuyperDEF36.5%5.2%-31.3-0.2-38.0
RogersMID30.4%6.5%-23.9-0.10.0
ØdegaardMID33.1%10.9%-22.2-5.7-8.0
GuéhiDEF22.1%1.8%-20.3-0.10.0
TzolisMID35.1%16.5%-18.6-1.7+2.0
HaalandFWD66.7%48.4%-18.3-19.5-14.0
GvardiolDEF25.9%13.9%-12.0-0.10.0

The captaincy

Share of the 1,000 managers who gave each player the armband. Triple captain is the share of all managers who captained him and played the chip, so it sits inside the Captain share. Model xP is the deadline run’s expected points for the player, uncaptained, as are the points. P(10+) is the run's probability of a ten-point haul.

Captaincy in the Top 10k
#PlayerCaptainTriple captainModel xPP(10+)Points (uncaptained)
1B.FernandesMan Utd · MID97.0%20.9%5.3015.0%23
2HaalandMan City · FWD1.5%0.6%5.6216.7%13
3João PedroChelsea · FWD0.7%0.0%5.0011.9%9
4PalmerChelsea · MID0.3%0.0%4.3311.4%7
5MbeumoMan Utd · MID0.2%0.1%6.4324.8%11
6GabrielArsenal · DEF0.1%0.0%4.7311.0%8
7SakaArsenal · MID0.1%0.0%4.1811.8%11
8TarkowskiEverton · DEF0.1%0.1%3.476.1%12

Template vs model

The template's eight averaged 4.4 points; the model's eight averaged 3.6. Eight players each, one gameweek.

Over-owned: of the twenty highest-EO players, the eight the model ranks lowest by expected points. Under-owned: of the model's twenty highest expected-points likely starters (expected minutes over 60), the eight with the lowest effective ownership in this tier.
Over-owned — the template holds, the model ranks low
PlayerEOEO rankModel xPModel rankPoints
KinskySpurs · GK35.6%#113.06#1281
M.SangaréBrentford · MID19.5%#183.18#1224
GroßBrighton · MID21.7%#163.42#9313
RayaArsenal · GK41.4%#103.62#676
TzolisArsenal · MID16.5%#193.66#610
NdiayeEverton · MID27.6%#143.87#454
ShawMan Utd · DEF21.4%#174.02#352
SemenyoMan City · MID15.0%#204.03#335
Under-owned — the model ranks high, the template doesn't hold
PlayerEOEO rankModel xPModel rankPoints
TavernierBournemouth · MID0.6%#724.74#81
LacroixChelsea · DEF0.6%#744.31#181
CunhaMan Utd · MID1.5%#574.30#199
GuéhiMan City · DEF1.8%#534.57#122
VirgilLiverpool · DEF1.9%#515.22#61
HavertzArsenal · FWD2.2%#504.68#112
WissaNewcastle · FWD2.5%#494.73#108
GakpoLiverpool · MID3.7%#424.48#145

Effective ownership, every player

All 341 players held by at least one of the 1,000 managers in this capture or the previous one, sorted by effective ownership; a player the tier has sold out of entirely sits at the foot at 0.0 with no rank. Own is the share holding the player anywhere in the 15; XI the share starting him; C and TC the share who captained and triple-captained him; EO is Σ multiplier ÷ managers × 100. EO last week is Gameweek 1's level in a different sample of 1,000 managers. "Same managers, change" is the EO change on the 20 managers held in both captures.

Effective ownership of every player in the Top 10k
#PlayerTeamPosOwnXICTCEO last weekEOSame managers, changeModel xPModel rankPoints
#1B.FernandesMan UtdMID99.7%99.7%97.0%20.9%56.9%217.7%+48.05.30#423
#2João PedroChelseaFWD98.9%98.7%0.7%0.0%134.5%99.4%-12.05.00#79
#3CalafioriArsenalDEF90.7%90.1%0.0%0.0%70.5%90.1%0.04.09#2911
#4MbeumoMan UtdMID82.4%82.4%0.2%0.1%45.9%82.8%+2.06.43#111
#5Calvert-LewinLeedsFWD82.7%70.8%0.0%0.0%35.9%70.8%-10.04.44#158
#6SzoboszlaiLiverpoolMID61.8%61.6%0.0%0.0%52.1%61.6%+2.05.23#54
#7HaalandMan CityFWD46.3%46.3%1.5%0.6%66.7%48.4%-14.05.62#213
#8MaguireMan UtdDEF49.2%46.9%0.0%0.0%23.2%46.9%+2.04.49#134
#9WhiteArsenalDEF47.4%45.5%0.0%0.0%28.3%45.5%-8.04.27#207
#10RayaArsenalGK42.0%41.4%0.0%0.0%40.8%41.4%-6.03.62#676
#11KinskySpursGK47.4%35.6%0.0%0.0%32.5%35.6%-12.03.06#1281
#12IsakLiverpoolFWD31.2%30.9%0.0%0.0%23.0%30.9%0.05.36#38
#13PalmerChelseaMID28.4%28.4%0.3%0.0%64.1%28.7%-6.04.33#177
#14NdiayeEvertonMID44.0%27.6%0.0%0.0%36.7%27.6%-24.03.87#454
#15GabrielArsenalDEF22.1%22.0%0.1%0.0%24.6%22.1%0.04.73#98
#16GroßBrightonMID29.9%21.7%0.0%0.0%5.0%21.7%0.03.42#9313
#17ShawMan UtdDEF24.2%21.4%0.0%0.0%22.5%21.4%+4.04.02#352
#18M.SangaréBrentfordMID23.3%19.5%0.0%0.0%20.9%19.5%0.03.18#1224
#19TzolisArsenalMID17.5%16.5%0.0%0.0%35.1%16.5%+2.03.66#610
#20SemenyoMan CityMID15.3%15.0%0.0%0.0%17.3%15.0%0.04.03#335
#21GvardiolMan CityDEF15.2%13.9%0.0%0.0%25.9%13.9%0.04.18#245
#22ThomasCoventry CityDEF14.8%13.5%0.0%0.0%0.7%13.5%0.04.13#278
#23LammensMan UtdGK14.2%13.4%0.0%0.0%12.6%13.4%-2.03.58#742
#24BallardSunderlandDEF22.6%13.4%0.0%0.0%5.5%13.4%-6.03.96#388
#25SchadeBrentfordMID11.5%11.0%0.0%0.0%5.1%11.0%0.03.56#7510
#26ØdegaardArsenalMID11.4%10.9%0.0%0.0%33.1%10.9%-8.03.61#683
#27AjerBrentfordDEF25.2%10.8%0.0%0.0%9.7%10.8%-24.03.33#1053
#28van EwijkCoventry CityDEF12.1%10.3%0.0%0.0%1.4%10.3%-6.04.08#312
#29TarkowskiEvertonDEF9.2%7.5%0.1%0.1%15.6%7.7%0.03.47#8412
#30MuharemovićLeedsDEF10.2%7.1%0.0%0.0%13.7%7.1%-8.03.58#734
#31HumeSunderlandDEF12.7%7.0%0.0%0.0%10.4%7.0%0.03.37#1006
#32MosqueraArsenalDEF8.6%6.9%0.0%0.0%8.1%6.9%-6.03.92#406
#33RogersChelseaMID6.8%6.5%0.0%0.0%30.4%6.5%0.04.14#265
#34VerbruggenBrightonGK58.7%5.7%0.0%0.0%46.7%5.7%-66.02.79#1570
#35ThiagoBrentfordFWD6.3%5.3%0.0%0.0%14.3%5.3%0.03.95#392
#36PetrovićBournemouthGK5.3%5.2%0.0%0.0%1.4%5.2%0.03.33#1043
#37De CuyperBrightonDEF29.9%5.2%0.0%0.0%36.5%5.2%-38.03.25#1140
#38RoefsSunderlandGK5.5%4.8%0.0%0.0%3.1%4.8%0.03.38#986
#39E.Le FéeSunderlandMID7.7%4.0%0.0%0.0%5.1%4.0%-6.04.38#163
#40BrobbeySunderlandFWD8.6%4.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%4.0%0.03.63#662
#41WirtzLiverpoolMID3.9%3.7%0.0%0.0%10.6%3.7%0.04.16#254
#42GakpoLiverpoolMID3.8%3.7%0.0%0.0%11.9%3.7%-2.04.48#145
#43SakaArsenalMID3.4%3.4%0.1%0.0%12.8%3.5%0.04.18#2311
#44CherkiMan CityMID3.4%3.4%0.0%0.0%6.8%3.4%0.02.63#16914
#45FodenMan CityMID3.1%3.1%0.0%0.0%3.7%3.1%0.03.99#369
#46O'ReillyMan CityDEF3.1%2.8%0.0%0.0%10.6%2.8%0.04.20#222
#47KayodeBrentfordDEF5.2%2.7%0.0%0.0%10.8%2.7%0.02.91#1422
#48RushworthCoventry CityGK2.7%2.6%0.0%0.0%0.4%2.6%+2.03.40#962
#49WissaNewcastleFWD2.8%2.5%0.0%0.0%0.5%2.5%+6.04.73#108
#50HavertzArsenalFWD2.3%2.2%0.0%0.0%13.5%2.2%0.04.68#112
#51VirgilLiverpoolDEF2.2%1.9%0.0%0.0%10.4%1.9%0.05.22#61
#52N.WilliamsNott'm ForestDEF13.8%1.9%0.0%0.0%13.0%1.9%-20.02.21#2096
#53GuéhiMan CityDEF1.9%1.8%0.0%0.0%22.1%1.8%0.04.57#122
#54GomezBrightonMID15.4%1.7%0.0%0.0%3.4%1.7%-24.03.47#835
#55Dewsbury-HallEvertonMID1.8%1.7%0.0%0.0%10.0%1.7%0.03.47#852
#56RodonLeedsDEF8.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%5.9%1.6%-12.03.54#761
#57CunhaMan UtdMID1.5%1.5%0.0%0.0%4.4%1.5%0.04.30#199
#58PickfordEvertonGK2.0%1.4%0.0%0.0%13.0%1.4%-2.03.28#1123
#59Gibbs-WhiteNott'm ForestMID1.7%1.3%0.0%0.0%6.4%1.3%0.03.35#10313
#60XhakaSunderlandMID1.7%1.3%0.0%0.0%3.9%1.3%0.03.63#656
#61KelleherBrentfordGK2.1%1.2%0.0%0.0%5.2%1.2%-2.03.36#1012
#62StachLeedsMID1.2%1.1%0.0%0.0%3.5%1.1%-2.03.96#374
#63KonsaArsenalDEF1.9%1.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%1.0%0.01.01#3111
#64BarryEvertonFWD2.8%1.0%0.0%0.0%4.7%1.0%-2.03.59#712
#65MykolenkoEvertonDEF2.1%0.9%0.0%0.0%3.3%0.9%-2.02.73#1634
#66TzolakisHull CityGK0.9%0.9%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.9%0.03.16#12310
#67DonnarummaMan CityGK1.1%0.8%0.0%0.0%5.0%0.8%0.03.22#1180
#68TraffordLeedsGK0.9%0.8%0.0%0.0%5.2%0.8%0.03.50#793
#69RiceArsenalMID0.7%0.7%0.0%0.0%5.8%0.7%0.03.40#955
#70Lewis-PotterBrentfordMID0.7%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.7%0.03.48#816
#71LenoFulhamGK0.9%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.7%0.03.40#973
#72TavernierBournemouthMID0.7%0.6%0.0%0.0%1.5%0.6%0.04.74#81
#73JamesChelseaDEF0.9%0.6%0.0%0.0%2.8%0.6%0.03.66#601
#74LacroixChelseaDEF0.6%0.6%0.0%0.0%11.2%0.6%0.04.31#181
#75DiopIpswich TownDEF12.1%0.6%0.0%0.0%7.0%0.6%-8.02.13#2182
#76EganHull CityDEF1.1%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.6%0.02.85#1519
#77SlaterHull CityMID1.7%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.6%0.03.06#1272
#78GonzaloFulhamFWD0.7%0.6%0.0%0.0%1.5%0.6%+2.04.13#282
#79JustinLeedsDEF1.2%0.5%0.0%0.0%2.3%0.5%0.03.67#592
#80FrimpongLiverpoolDEF0.6%0.5%0.0%0.0%1.6%0.5%0.03.86#461
#81JacquetLiverpoolDEF0.5%0.5%0.0%0.0%1.6%0.5%0.03.46#863
#82RobertsonSpursDEF1.6%0.5%0.0%0.0%4.0%0.5%-6.03.32#1072
#83McBurnieHull CityFWD0.8%0.4%0.0%0.0%1.2%0.4%0.04.22#211
#84AmpaduLeedsMID0.8%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.4%0.03.61#692
#85HallNewcastleDEF0.4%0.4%0.0%0.0%1.7%0.4%0.03.13#12411
#86Pedro PorroSpursDEF0.9%0.4%0.0%0.0%1.8%0.4%0.01.54#2571
#87EvanilsonBournemouthFWD0.7%0.3%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.3%0.03.88#435
#88DasilvaCoventry CityDEF0.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.03.92#412
#89BranthwaiteEvertonDEF0.5%0.3%0.0%0.0%1.7%0.3%0.02.99#1344
#90DavisIpswich TownDEF9.6%0.3%0.0%0.0%6.2%0.3%-6.02.01#2276
#91ElangaNewcastleMID0.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.3%0.03.18#1218
#92AinaNott'm ForestDEF4.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%4.2%0.3%-6.02.01#2280
#93AndersonMan CityMID0.7%0.3%0.0%0.0%2.6%0.3%-2.03.84#493
#94MendyHull CityDEF0.5%0.3%0.0%0.0%1.3%0.3%0.02.58#1721
#95TielemansMan UtdMID0.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.2%0.03.23#1154
#96KluivertBournemouthMID0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.2%0.03.58#723
#97CollinsBrentfordDEF0.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%1.5%0.2%-2.03.65#623
#98O.DangoBrentfordMID0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%1.3%0.2%0.03.01#1321
#99ColwillChelseaDEF0.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.2%-2.03.51#781
#100AmendaCoventry CityDEF0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.04.02#341
#101Thomas-AsanteCoventry CityFWD0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.02.80#1561
#102BelloumiHull CityMID0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.03.10#1256
#103A.BeckerLiverpoolGK0.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.2%0.03.43#910
#104KhusanovMan CityDEF0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.2%0.03.81#522
#105NdoyeNott'm ForestMID0.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.2%0.02.35#2019
#106DubravkaSpursGK2.1%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.2%0.00.33#4030
#107RicharlisonSpursFWD7.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%7.6%0.2%-12.03.70#570
#108MukieleSunderlandDEF0.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.2%0.01.82#2409
#109CashAston VillaDEF1.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.8%0.1%0.02.04#2252
#110HillBournemouthDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.1%0.03.82#514
#111TruffertBournemouthDEF0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.1%0.04.08#304
#112RayanBournemouthMID0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.1%0.03.77#542
#113ScottBournemouthMID0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.1%0.04.03#3212
#114Van HeckeSpursDEF1.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%4.1%0.1%-6.03.85#471
#115HatoChelseaDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.02.37#1984
#116LaviaChelseaMID0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.02.23#2077
#117DovinCoventry CityGK0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.00.07#4980
#118TchaounaCoventry CityMID0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.03.48#821
#119MitchellCrystal PalaceDEF0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.1%0.02.39#1950
#120Strand LarsenCrystal PalaceFWD0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.01.94#2312
#121RobinsonFulhamDEF0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.03.29#1112
#122WilsonLeedsMID0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%2.6%0.1%0.02.99#1351
#123Kusi-AsareFulhamFWD0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.1%0.00.21#4300
#124AjayiHull CityDEF0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%1.3%0.1%0.02.44#1886
#125O'SheaIpswich TownDEF15.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%4.0%0.1%-18.02.17#2120
#126BijolLeedsDEF0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.8%0.1%0.03.72#561
#127BogleLeedsDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.8%0.1%0.03.28#1132
#128NmechaLeedsFWD0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.00.91#3214
#129KerkezLiverpoolDEF0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.8%0.1%0.03.83#501
#130GravenberchLiverpoolMID0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.1%0.03.23#1161
#131RúbenMan CityDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.8%0.1%0.03.65#632
#132DorguMan UtdMID0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.1%0.03.31#1091
#133DalotMan UtdDEF0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%1.5%0.1%0.02.14#2162
#134ThiawNewcastleDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.1%0.03.43#926
#135BotmanNewcastleDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.03.37#995
#136Igor JesusNott'm ForestFWD2.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%5.9%0.1%-2.03.23#1171
#137VuskovicBrightonDEF2.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%5.4%0.1%-6.02.78#1610
#138IsidorSunderlandFWD0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.1%0.02.03#2268
#139SilvaBournemouthDEF0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.03.69#584
#140HorníčekNewcastleGK0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.02.90#1447
#141TomiyasuCrystal PalaceDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.01.06#3051
#142AraujoLiverpoolDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.1%0.02.28#2060
#143EncisoIpswich TownMID0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.1%0.02.65#1685
#144DedićNewcastleDEF0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.02.89#14811
#145SuzukiAston VillaGK0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.00.39#3892
#146HincapieArsenalDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.01.88#2330
#147MartinezChelseaGK0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.00.71#3372
#148A.GarcíaAston VillaDEF0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.20#4330
#149BuendíaAston VillaMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.03.31#1082
#150George HemmingsAston VillaMID0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.02.54#1772
#151WatkinsAston VillaFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.01.41#2680
#152ForsterBournemouthGK0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.10#4720
#153DennisBournemouthGK0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5690
#154DiakitéBournemouthDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.05#3060
#155JaneltBrentfordMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.03.18#1191
#156SteeleBrightonGK0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.00.02#5530
#157F.KadıoğluBrightonDEF0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.0%0.00.70#3390
#158BoscagliBrightonDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.02.44#187-1
#159DunkBrightonDEF0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.02.48#180-1
#160MintehBrightonMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.12#4580
#161HinshelwoodBrightonMID5.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%0.0%-30.00.34#3990
#162GeorginioBrightonFWD0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.2%0.0%0.02.86#1490
#163AyariBrightonMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.02.66#1660
#164WiefferBrightonDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.0%0.02.33#2030
#165OriolaBrightonMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.09#4810
#166SánchezChelseaGK0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.7%0.0%0.03.18#1200
#167GustoChelseaDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.02.89#1461
#168PalestraChelseaDEF1.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.9%0.0%0.00.74#3330
#169NetoChelseaMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.82#2397
#170CaicedoChelseaMID0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%-6.00.63#3501
#171KitchingCoventry CityDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.26#4200
#172AndrewsCoventry CityMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.38#3910
#173SimmsCoventry CityFWD0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.78#1590
#174MuñozCrystal PalaceDEF0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.8%0.0%-6.02.09#2210
#175SarrCrystal PalaceMID0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.0%0.00.09#4830
#176WhartonCrystal PalaceMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.03.44#872
#177HughesCrystal PalaceMID1.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.00.38#3920
#178MatetaCrystal PalaceFWD0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.03.42#940
#179KeaneEvertonDEF0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.18#2860
#180AznouEvertonDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.07#5000
#181GeorgeEvertonMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.03.05#1292
#182BetoEvertonFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.01.56#2541
#183LecomteFulhamGK0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.05#5260
#184LukićIpswich TownMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.45#1851
#185ReedFulhamMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.31#4100
#186PhillipsHull CityGK0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.07#5010
#187CoyleHull CityDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.18#2110
#188DestanHull CityFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5840
#189BurstowHull CityFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5850
#190PalmerIpswich TownGK0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.00.08#4900
#191ButtonIpswich TownGK0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.03#5470
#192GreavesIpswich TownDEF0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.01.98#230-1
#193JohnsonIpswich TownDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.09#4840
#194EmersonnIpswich TownFWD0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.03.04#1301
#195Walle EgeliIpswich TownFWD1.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.00.96#3190
#196McAteerIpswich TownMID0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.35#2721
#197AaronsonLeedsMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.03.36#1021
#198NgumohaLiverpoolMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.03.00#1331
#199DannsLiverpoolFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.03#5510
#200SávioSpursMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.15#2900
#201HeavenMan UtdDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.03.91#420
#202MazraouiMan UtdDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.03.74#551
#203AmadMan UtdMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.00.11#4670
#204BurnNewcastleDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.02#5600
#205TonaliSpursMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.7%0.0%0.03.61#702
#206OsulaNewcastleFWD0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.00.21#4320
#207NeaveNewcastleFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.14#4510
#208SelsNott'm ForestGK0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.02.92#1411
#209MilenkovićNott'm ForestDEF0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.8%0.0%0.02.34#2023
#210I.SangaréNott'm ForestMID0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.00.16#4430
#211YatesNott'm ForestMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.71#3380
#212WoodNott'm ForestFWD0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.02.11#2200
#213AustinSpursGK0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.02#5610
#214SenesiSpursDEF0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%5.6%0.0%0.03.88#440
#215Van de VenSpursDEF0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.01.32#2740
#216SpenceSpursDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#6050
#217UdogieSpursDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.97#3181
#218DaviesSpursDEF0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.14#4520
#219MooreSpursMID0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.15#2151
#220ReinildoSunderlandDEF0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.03.30#1106
#221O'NienSunderlandDEF1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.02.42#1900
#222DiarraSunderlandMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.42#2674
#223SadikiSunderlandMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.89#1473
#224MatthewsCrystal PalaceGK0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.04#5420
#225TargettHull CityDEF0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.73#3340
#226ScherpenIpswich TownGK9.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.2%0.0%-12.02.65#1672
#227OuattaraIpswich TownDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.68#3461
#228RoweAston VillaDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.05#5330
ArrizabalagaArsenalGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.13#4530
Lewis-SkellyArsenalMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.03.02#1313
EzeArsenalMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.01.98#2291
MaduekeArsenalMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.71#2450
ZubimendiArsenalMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.01.83#2381
GyökeresArsenalFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.0%0.01.49#2620
MaatsenAston VillaDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.02.38#1961
McGinnAston VillaMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.02.89#1451
BurrowesAston VillaMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.21#4280
AbrahamAston VillaFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.32#4051
Kroupi.JrBournemouthMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.12#4570
RodríguezBournemouthFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.04#3071
HenryBrentfordDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.51#3701
PinnockCoventry CityDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.35#3961
SchusterBrentfordDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.41#3840
DamsgaardBrentfordMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.62#2493
JensenBrentfordMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.56#1740
OnyekaCoventry CityMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.03.43#890
FuroBrentfordFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.09#4800
WilsonBrentfordFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.20#2821
IgorBrightonDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.16#4410
CostinhaBrightonDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.07#3020
WelbeckChelseaFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.14#2910
KostoulasBrightonFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.52#2585
TosinChelseaDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.52#3680
EnzoChelseaMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.0%0.02.40#1930
EstêvãoChelseaMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.56#2530
GarnachoAston VillaMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.29#2771
Andrey SantosMan UtdMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.55#1751
D.EssugoChelseaMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.09#4820
N.JacksonAston VillaFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.56#3622
Marc GuiuChelseaFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.21#4290
WilsonCoventry CityGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.19#4370
BrauCoventry CityDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.14#4490
RudoniCoventry CityMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.01.63#2483
Borges RodriguesCoventry CityMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.26#4220
HendersonCrystal PalaceGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.92#1391
BenitezCrystal PalaceGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.05#5230
RichardsCrystal PalaceDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.2%0.0%0.02.97#1380
CanvotCrystal PalaceDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.73#1620
Chadi RiadCrystal PalaceDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.07#4990
MinguezaCrystal PalaceDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.24#4261
NketiahCrystal PalaceFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.09#2222
GrealishMan CityMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.51#2600
ArmstrongEvertonMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.86#1502
BasseyFulhamDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.07#1262
CastagneFulhamDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.03.43#906
IwobiFulhamMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.03.49#802
BobbFulhamMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.60#1713
MunizFulhamFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.01.35#2710
GilesHull CityDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.02.67#1656
ZambranoHull CityMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.05#5270
WaltonIpswich TownGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.18#4380
KipréIpswich TownDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.10#4740
FurlongIpswich TownDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.08#4911
NúñezIpswich TownMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.38#1972
ClarkeIpswich TownMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%-2.01.52#2590
FatawuIpswich TownMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.44#1894
HirstIpswich TownFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5870
AkpomIpswich TownFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.20#2845
PerriLeedsGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.27#4180
StruijkBrightonDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.07#3030
OkaforLeedsMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.02.13#2192
WoodmanLiverpoolGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.07#5030
BradleyLiverpoolDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.03#5500
Mac AllisterLiverpoolMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.20#2102
MunozLiverpoolMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.15#2136
EkitikéLiverpoolFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.12#4620
Matheus N.Man CityDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.01.29#2780
Aït-NouriMan CityDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.01.02#3100
DokuMan CityMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.16#4420
MarmoushSpursFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.14#2922
MongaMan CityMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.32#4080
MartinezMan UtdDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.55#2551
YoroMan UtdDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.30#2761
AmassMan UtdDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.10#4760
RashfordMan UtdMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.02.48#1812
MainooMan UtdMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.86#2344
ŠeškoMan UtdFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.02.82#1551
ZirkzeeMan UtdFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.00.63#3510
ObiMan UtdFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.00.11#4680
PopeNewcastleGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.69#3430
GillespieNewcastleGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.05#5290
SchärNewcastleDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.01.42#2660
LivramentoNewcastleDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.05#5300
Bruno G.ArsenalMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.19#2851
BarnesNewcastleMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.03.63#643
J.RamseyNewcastleMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.66#2471
WoltemadeNewcastleFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.17#2884
JohnNott'm ForestGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.11#4690
MurilloNott'm ForestDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.02.46#1841
Hudson-OdoiNott'm ForestMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.14#2931
AwoniyiCoventry CityFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.02.51#1792
VicarioSpursGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#6030
RomeroSpursDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#6040
DansoSpursDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.86#3250
TelSpursMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.03.80#532
MaddisonSpursMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.04#3080
GallagherSpursMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.08#2230
GraySpursMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.62#1702
OlusesiSpursMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.15#4470
FernandesSpursMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.02.47#1832
SolankeSpursFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.01.75#2441
ScarlettSpursFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.13#4560
AldereteSunderlandDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.45#1860
MeunierSunderlandDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.52#776
SchlagerNott'm ForestMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.07#3044
MaedaIpswich TownMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.02.99#1362
DiomandeNott'm ForestDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.70#3410
ChavarriaChelseaDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.58#2511
HamerCoventry CityMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.41#2691
HerringtonHull CityDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.33#2731
RulliMan CityGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.17#4400

Top 100k

Top 10k only for this gameweek.

No managers ranked 10,001–100,000 were sampled for this gameweek: that band is captured from 2026-09-13 onward, so earlier gameweeks have the top 10k only.

Method

Effective ownership
Effective ownership (eo_pct in the JSON) as the game scores it: for each player, the weighted sum of multipliers across the tier's managers (0 on the bench, 1 in the starting XI, 2 as captain, 3 as triple captain) divided by the weighted number of managers, times 100. It can exceed 100. Own (own_pct) is the share holding the player anywhere in their 15, XI (xi_pct) the share fielding him, Captain (captain_pct) the share who gave him the armband, and Triple captain (tc_pct) the share of all managers who captained him AND played the chip — it sits inside the captain share. Captures are taken after the deadline (FPL publishes picks only then), so multipliers are the effective ones once auto-substitutions have applied. Each gameweek uses its latest capture.
Who was sampled, and how they're weighted
Managers are sampled from the live standings in rank bands: 1-1,000 (population 1,000), 1,001-10,000 (9,000) and 10,001-100,000 (90,000). Each sampled manager is weighted by band population divided by the number sampled in that band, so every share estimates the whole tier rather than the sample; the bands, sample sizes and weights are printed with each tier. The top 10k tier is ranks 1-10,000 at the capture; the top 100k tier adds the 10,001-100,000 band. A tier is reported only when its bands were sampled (sampling of the 10,001-100,000 band began 2026-09-13), and is otherwise marked unavailable rather than built from the bands that were.
The same-managers column
The same-managers change (d_own_pct, d_eo_pct, d_captain_pct in the JSON) is measured on a matched panel: the managers present in both this gameweek's capture and the previous gameweek's, in the tier at this capture, weighted by band population divided by the panel count in the band. A change is the level on that panel now minus the level on the same panel then, in percentage points. They are null when there is no previous capture to match against, and null for a tier whose panel does not cover every one of its rank bands — under page-cluster sampling of the 10,001-100,000 band that is the normal state of the top-100k panel, so its same-managers column is usually empty.
The model column
Model xP (model_xp) is Sideline Quant's expected points for the gameweek from the latest run before the deadline, summed across a double gameweek; model_rank is the player's place by expected points among every player in that run; model_p_ge_10 is the run's probability of a ten-point haul (null for a double gameweek and for the pre-season bundle, which did not record it); likely_starter means expected minutes over 60. A player the run did not cover has null model fields. GW1 predates run retention and uses the committed pre-season bundle, labelled seed.
What counts as a move
A move is shown two ways. The headline change (this week's level minus last week's: own_pct minus prev_own_pct, and likewise for EO and captain) compares this gameweek's tier level with the previous gameweek's: two independent samples of about 1,000 managers inside the band at each capture, so it carries sampling noise of roughly ±4 points at 95% on a share near 30% (about ±9 where a band holds only ~200 managers) and a change inside that is noise, not a move. The matched-panel delta (d_own_pct, d_eo_pct, d_captain_pct) is the same managers in both captures, so it is free of sample churn, but the sample is redrawn from the moving standings each capture and the panel is typically ~50 managers, roughly ±14 points. prev_* is 0.0 when the previous capture existed and nobody in the tier held the player; both readings are null when there is no previous capture.
The template-vs-model rule
Over-owned: of the twenty highest-EO players, the eight the model ranks lowest by expected points. Under-owned: of the model's twenty highest expected-points likely starters (expected minutes over 60), the eight with the lowest effective ownership in this tier.
How it's scored
Once a gameweek settles, every row carries the player's realised FPL points, summed across the gameweek's fixtures (null when the player has no record for the gameweek, which is absence, not zero), and each disagreement list carries the mean points of its scored rows. The lists are fixed at the deadline's ownership and prediction; the points are filled in afterwards and nothing is re-selected. Until the gameweek settles, points and the means are null and the previous gameweek's verdict is shown, if that gameweek has settled. A player held in the previous capture and by nobody now is listed at 0.0 with no EO rank, so a sale out of the tier is visible.

Top 10k — bands and weights

Rank bandSampledWeight per manager
1-10002005.00
1001-1000080011.25

Free to use, quote and redistribute, including commercially, with attribution to Sideline Quant and a link to https://sidelinequant.com. Produced by Sideline Quant.