Scout
Get a deeper understanding of the model and the underlying patterns within the FPL data with these scout reports.
Does Europe actually cost your players starts?
I matched every European tie English clubs have played since 2022/23 to the league game straight after it. The knockouts cost starts but hardly any points, and the real cost is spread across the whole season.
Ten seasons of captaincy rules, and the simple one that beats the template
I tested 20 ways of picking a captain over 339 gameweeks. The one that won is pretty basic, and my own model didn't beat it.
How many gameweeks does the first Wildcard need?
I assumed the answer was 'as long as you can afford to wait'. It isn't, or at least not in ten seasons of data.
The model’s best players for Gameweek 1
Single-week expected points for opening weekend, off the 10 August model run. Mbeumo tops the board, Haaland is fourth at 74% ownership, and two of the biggest names carry minutes doubt.
The best and worst opening six in the Premier League
Every club’s first six fixtures, ranked by the model’s expected-goal difference rather than FPL’s 1–5 difficulty ratings.
Players set to feast on the best opening fixtures
Six-week expected points for the clubs with the kindest opening runs. Mbeumo leads the whole board, a £5.0m Newcastle defender is the best value in the game, and the crowd has moved a long way on some of these names in three weeks.
Are the most expensive players in the game worth it?
Haaland at £15.5m, Bruno Fernandes at £12.0m and a shared £9.5m third place. We put all four through the model, the optimiser and seven seasons of history to see what those price tags buy you.
When will the double gameweeks hit in 2026-27?
The cup draws haven't happened, so nobody can tell you which clubs will blank. The dates are another matter: the cup rounds and the league calendar are both published, and laid side by side they show where the blanks have to fall. The week most people are planning around isn't among them.
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