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Top-10k picks

Elite 10k Analysis

Track what the current top 10k managers are doing with their teams week by week.

Top 10k

1,000 managers sampled from the live top 10k after the deadline, weighted so the sample stands for all 10,000. Bands and weights are under Method.

Bought and sold

Gameweek 2's 1,000 managers against this gameweek's 1,000. The top 10k is a moving group, so this is the template moving, not 1,000 named managers trading. EO counts a captain twice and a triple captain three times, so it runs past 100. On a share near 30%, a change inside about ±4 points is sampling noise. The last column is the 68 managers held in both captures — churn-free, but at n=68 roughly ±14.

Bought — largest rise in EO
PlayerPosEO last week → nowChangeCaptain changeSame managers (n=68)
HaalandFWD48.4%215.0%+166.6+88.4+158.2
De CuyperDEF5.2%54.0%+48.8+0.1+38.3
CherkiMID3.4%50.6%+47.2+0.2+34.6
IsakFWD30.9%67.8%+36.9+6.4+10.7
GvardiolDEF13.9%38.5%+24.6+0.1+7.8
AjerDEF10.8%35.0%+24.20.0+29.9
FodenMID3.1%26.2%+23.1+0.2+18.2
ThiagoFWD5.3%27.4%+22.1+0.1+8.5
GakpoMID3.7%25.7%+22.0+0.2+4.8
KelleherGK1.2%22.0%+20.80.0+17.1
Sold — largest fall in EO
PlayerPosEO last week → nowChangeCaptain changeSame managers (n=68)
B.FernandesMID217.7%45.3%-172.4-95.5-166.8
João PedroFWD99.4%32.2%-67.2-0.7-53.6
Calvert-LewinFWD70.8%19.3%-51.5+0.1-35.4
MbeumoMID82.8%33.5%-49.3-0.2-51.1
CalafioriDEF90.1%48.2%-41.90.0-31.9
MaguireDEF46.9%7.8%-39.10.0-30.2
WhiteDEF45.5%10.5%-35.00.0-26.1
KinskyGK35.6%6.8%-28.80.0-37.4
RayaGK41.4%14.4%-27.00.0-24.9
PalmerMID28.7%5.3%-23.4-0.3-24.2

The captaincy

Share of the 1,000 managers who gave each player the armband. Triple captain is the share of all managers who captained him and played the chip, so it sits inside the Captain share. Model xP is the deadline run’s expected points for the player, uncaptained, as are the points. P(10+) is the run's probability of a ten-point haul.

Captaincy in the Top 10k
#PlayerCaptainTriple captainModel xPP(10+)Points (uncaptained)
1HaalandMan City · FWD89.9%32.4%6.7225.7%9
2IsakLiverpool · FWD6.4%1.0%5.9117.7%13
3B.FernandesMan Utd · MID1.5%0.0%5.2216.1%2
4SemenyoMan City · MID1.0%0.1%5.0213.0%6
5GakpoLiverpool · MID0.2%0.0%4.1310.1%11
6FodenMan City · MID0.2%0.0%5.9219.4%1
7CherkiMan City · MID0.2%0.0%5.7019.3%3
8SakaArsenal · MID0.1%0.0%5.0515.1%2
9ThiagoBrentford · FWD0.1%0.0%4.9012.3%2
10De CuyperBrighton · DEF0.1%0.0%5.1915.8%4

Template vs model

The template's eight averaged 2.9 points; the model's eight averaged 3.6. Eight players each, one gameweek.

Over-owned: of the twenty highest-EO players, the eight the model ranks lowest by expected points. Under-owned: of the model's twenty highest expected-points likely starters (expected minutes over 60), the eight with the lowest effective ownership in this tier.
Over-owned — the template holds, the model ranks low
PlayerEOEO rankModel xPModel rankPoints
VerbruggenBrighton · GK26.4%#133.39#963
João PedroChelsea · FWD32.2%#113.68#631
KelleherBrentford · GK22.0%#173.82#542
GroßBrighton · MID24.6%#163.98#431
Calvert-LewinLeeds · FWD19.3%#204.00#411
GakpoLiverpool · MID25.7%#154.13#3611
AjerBrentford · DEF35.0%#94.20#322
CalafioriArsenal · DEF48.2%#54.26#292
Under-owned — the model ranks high, the template doesn't hold
PlayerEOEO rankModel xPModel rankPoints
O'ReillyMan City · DEF0.2%#1186.24#20
RúbenMan City · DEF0.6%#905.03#136
AndersonMan City · MID0.8%#824.93#153
GuéhiMan City · DEF3.1%#535.87#58
CollinsBrentford · DEF11.1%#314.87#171
SakaArsenal · MID14.8%#275.05#122
WirtzLiverpool · MID14.9%#264.84#203
VirgilLiverpool · DEF15.4%#254.86#186

Effective ownership, every player

All 313 players held by at least one of the 1,000 managers in this capture or the previous one, sorted by effective ownership; a player the tier has sold out of entirely sits at the foot at 0.0 with no rank. Own is the share holding the player anywhere in the 15; XI the share starting him; C and TC the share who captained and triple-captained him; EO is Σ multiplier ÷ managers × 100. EO last week is Gameweek 2's level in a different sample of 1,000 managers. "Same managers, change" is the EO change on the 68 managers held in both captures.

Effective ownership of every player in the Top 10k
#PlayerTeamPosOwnXICTCEO last weekEOSame managers, changeModel xPModel rankPoints
#1HaalandMan CityFWD92.6%92.6%89.9%32.4%48.4%215.0%+158.26.72#19
#2IsakLiverpoolFWD60.5%60.5%6.4%1.0%30.9%67.8%+10.75.91#413
#3De CuyperBrightonDEF55.4%53.9%0.1%0.0%5.2%54.0%+38.35.19#104
#4CherkiMan CityMID50.5%50.5%0.2%0.0%3.4%50.6%+34.65.70#63
#5CalafioriArsenalDEF51.9%48.2%0.0%0.0%90.1%48.2%-31.94.26#292
#6B.FernandesMan UtdMID43.8%43.8%1.5%0.0%217.7%45.3%-166.85.22#92
#7SzoboszlaiLiverpoolMID44.4%44.3%0.0%0.0%61.6%44.3%+0.45.23#83
#8GvardiolMan CityDEF38.5%38.4%0.1%0.0%13.9%38.5%+7.84.85#198
#9AjerBrentfordDEF37.5%35.0%0.0%0.0%10.8%35.0%+29.94.20#322
#10MbeumoMan UtdMID33.5%33.5%0.0%0.0%82.8%33.5%-51.15.24#78
#11João PedroChelseaFWD46.8%32.2%0.0%0.0%99.4%32.2%-53.63.68#631
#12ThiagoBrentfordFWD27.4%27.3%0.1%0.0%5.3%27.4%+8.54.90#162
#13VerbruggenBrightonGK39.6%26.4%0.0%0.0%5.7%26.4%+37.83.39#963
#14FodenMan CityMID26.0%26.0%0.2%0.0%3.1%26.2%+18.25.92#31
#15GakpoLiverpoolMID25.8%25.5%0.2%0.0%3.7%25.7%+4.84.13#3611
#16GroßBrightonMID31.6%24.6%0.0%0.0%21.7%24.6%+14.23.98#431
#17KelleherBrentfordGK22.6%22.0%0.0%0.0%1.2%22.0%+17.13.82#542
#18SemenyoMan CityMID20.2%20.2%1.0%0.1%15.0%21.4%+15.05.02#146
#19Gibbs-WhiteNott'm ForestMID19.9%19.5%0.0%0.0%1.3%19.5%+16.04.41#253
#20Calvert-LewinLeedsFWD27.4%19.2%0.1%0.0%70.8%19.3%-35.44.00#411
#21M.SangaréBrentfordMID21.0%19.0%0.0%0.0%19.5%19.0%0.04.35#260
#22WissaNewcastleFWD19.4%18.1%0.0%0.0%2.5%18.1%+26.15.13#111
#23ØdegaardArsenalMID18.3%17.9%0.0%0.0%10.9%17.9%-0.43.50#8710
#24SchadeBrentfordMID18.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%11.0%17.7%+3.04.24#302
#25VirgilLiverpoolDEF15.4%15.4%0.0%0.0%1.9%15.4%+7.54.86#186
#26WirtzLiverpoolMID15.0%14.9%0.0%0.0%3.7%14.9%+9.04.84#203
#27SakaArsenalMID14.8%14.8%0.1%0.0%3.5%14.8%+15.25.05#122
#28RayaArsenalGK16.9%14.4%0.0%0.0%41.4%14.4%-24.93.52#863
#29HallNewcastleDEF15.4%14.4%0.0%0.0%0.4%14.4%+12.73.79#564
#30SuzukiAston VillaGK13.4%13.3%0.0%0.0%0.1%13.3%+2.53.15#12110
#31CollinsBrentfordDEF11.4%11.1%0.0%0.0%0.2%11.1%+11.94.87#171
#32WhiteArsenalDEF13.4%10.5%0.0%0.0%45.5%10.5%-26.13.99#422
#33KayodeBrentfordDEF10.8%8.9%0.0%0.0%2.7%8.9%+5.94.16#331
#34GomezBrightonMID13.0%7.9%0.0%0.0%1.7%7.9%+13.94.27#282
#35MaguireMan UtdDEF13.1%7.8%0.0%0.0%46.9%7.8%-30.23.33#1002
#36ShawMan UtdDEF12.9%7.8%0.0%0.0%21.4%7.8%-17.92.78#1574
#37KinskySpursGK29.0%6.8%0.0%0.0%35.6%6.8%-37.43.01#1366
#38N.WilliamsNott'm ForestDEF8.1%6.7%0.0%0.0%1.9%6.7%+7.13.64#727
#39VuskovicBrightonDEF6.8%6.6%0.0%0.0%0.1%6.6%0.04.10#3712
#40TzolisArsenalMID9.5%6.0%0.0%0.0%16.5%6.0%-7.82.98#1415
#41EganHull CityDEF27.8%5.7%0.0%0.0%0.6%5.7%+6.32.99#1396
#42PalmerChelseaMID6.4%5.3%0.0%0.0%28.7%5.3%-24.23.56#821
#43NdiayeMan CityMID11.1%4.7%0.0%0.0%27.6%4.7%-11.94.00#403
#44ElangaNewcastleMID5.2%4.2%0.0%0.0%0.3%4.2%+10.83.84#511
#45BarnesNewcastleMID4.3%4.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%4.1%+0.43.92#4912
#46TzolakisHull CityGK5.4%4.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%4.0%+0.43.14#1236
#47A.BeckerLiverpoolGK3.8%3.8%0.0%0.0%0.2%3.8%+4.53.22#1128
#48DedićNewcastleDEF7.2%3.8%0.0%0.0%0.1%3.8%+10.13.45#931
#49RogersChelseaMID4.7%3.7%0.0%0.0%6.5%3.7%-3.73.25#1096
#50BuendíaAston VillaMID4.2%3.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%+0.74.14#343
#51DonnarummaMan CityGK3.6%3.6%0.0%0.0%0.8%3.6%0.03.77#587
#52MuharemovićLeedsDEF5.8%3.4%0.0%0.0%7.1%3.4%-2.63.16#1204
#53GuéhiMan CityDEF3.1%3.1%0.0%0.0%1.8%3.1%+2.65.87#58
#54CashAston VillaDEF4.0%2.9%0.0%0.0%0.1%2.9%0.03.55#836
#55KonsaArsenalDEF9.2%2.8%0.0%0.0%1.0%2.8%+6.81.99#2194
#56AjayiHull CityDEF11.2%2.4%0.1%0.0%0.1%2.5%+1.13.06#1315
#57JacquetLiverpoolDEF2.6%2.5%0.0%0.0%0.5%2.5%0.03.67#665
#58E.Le FéeSunderlandMID4.3%2.5%0.0%0.0%4.0%2.5%+1.93.94#488
#59TarkowskiEvertonDEF3.1%2.2%0.0%0.0%7.7%2.2%-5.63.55#853
#60GabrielArsenalDEF2.2%2.1%0.0%0.0%22.1%2.1%-19.34.57#222
#61GonzaloFulhamFWD2.3%2.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%2.0%0.04.55#232
#62MaatsenAston VillaDEF3.2%1.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.9%+0.44.06#387
#63BallardSunderlandDEF4.6%1.9%0.0%0.0%13.4%1.9%-5.92.84#1544
#64KingFulhamMID1.8%1.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%0.03.86#5010
#65MendyHull CityDEF13.5%1.8%0.0%0.0%0.3%1.8%+2.62.57#1768
#66MitchellCrystal PalaceDEF2.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%0.1%1.6%0.03.22#11115
#67LammensMan UtdGK3.8%1.6%0.0%0.0%13.4%1.6%-3.73.05#1322
#68ThiawNewcastleDEF2.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%0.1%1.6%+0.73.98#44-1
#69N.JacksonAston VillaFWD1.6%1.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.5%0.03.59#792
#70Dewsbury-HallEvertonMID1.6%1.5%0.0%0.0%1.7%1.5%-0.43.60#772
#71KerkezLiverpoolDEF1.4%1.4%0.0%0.0%0.1%1.4%0.02.95#1455
#72HumeSunderlandDEF6.6%1.4%0.0%0.0%7.0%1.4%0.02.38#1911
#73LenoFulhamGK4.1%1.2%0.0%0.0%0.7%1.2%0.03.46#911
#74HavertzArsenalFWD1.1%1.1%0.0%0.0%2.2%1.1%0.04.50#248
#75TraffordLeedsGK1.2%1.1%0.0%0.0%0.8%1.1%+1.93.48#883
#76StachLeedsMID1.3%1.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%1.0%0.03.57#812
#77MunozLiverpoolMID1.0%1.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.03.67#673
#78CunhaMan UtdMID1.2%1.0%0.0%0.0%1.5%1.0%-0.43.47#893
#79Pedro PorroSpursDEF1.0%1.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%1.0%0.03.37#987
#80CastagneFulhamDEF1.7%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%+0.43.01#1351
#81Igor JesusNott'm ForestFWD1.4%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.9%+2.63.98#451
#82AndersonMan CityMID0.8%0.8%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.8%+0.44.93#153
#83McGinnAston VillaMID0.9%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.04.23#313
#84Lewis-PotterBrentfordMID1.2%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.7%0.04.06#392
#85DavisIpswich TownDEF9.7%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.7%0.02.11#2041
#86SelsNott'm ForestGK0.7%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%+0.43.35#996
#87YalcouyéBrightonMID9.6%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%+0.42.84#1552
#88Van HeckeSpursDEF0.9%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.6%0.03.61#768
#89ThomasCoventry CityDEF14.9%0.6%0.0%0.0%13.5%0.6%-5.21.37#2714
#90RúbenMan CityDEF0.6%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.6%0.05.03#136
#91MilenkovićNott'm ForestDEF0.6%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.03.64#737
#92MurilloNott'm ForestDEF0.6%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.03.83#538
#93JaneltBrentfordMID0.7%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.03.66#6811
#94RobinsonFulhamDEF1.2%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.5%0.03.75#611
#95RashfordMan UtdMID0.5%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.02.88#1503
#96AinaNott'm ForestDEF1.8%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.5%+2.63.30#1021
#97XhakaSunderlandMID1.2%0.5%0.0%0.0%1.3%0.5%-2.23.26#1083
#98George HemmingsAston VillaMID3.1%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.02.66#1653
#99PickfordEvertonGK1.1%0.4%0.0%0.0%1.4%0.4%-2.23.31#1011
#100RoefsSunderlandGK1.2%0.4%0.0%0.0%4.8%0.4%-0.72.93#1472
#101HorníčekNewcastleGK0.7%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.4%0.03.20#1142
#102RiceArsenalMID0.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.3%-2.23.96#465
#103TavernierBournemouthMID0.5%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.3%-2.24.14#3510
#104F.KadıoğluBrightonDEF1.2%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.03.29#1032
#105van EwijkCoventry CityDEF10.9%0.3%0.0%0.0%10.3%0.3%-6.81.42#2653
#106BarryEvertonFWD1.1%0.3%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.3%0.03.71#622
#107O'SheaIpswich TownDEF9.1%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.3%+2.22.07#2093
#108MarmoushSpursFWD0.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.03.81#552
#109RobertsonSpursDEF0.9%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.3%0.02.51#1811
#110PetrovićBournemouthGK2.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%5.2%0.2%0.03.11#1261
#111ScottBournemouthMID0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.03.65#6910
#112KluivertBournemouthMID0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.2%0.03.64#711
#113HendersonCrystal PalaceGK0.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.03.11#1272
#114MuñozNott'm ForestDEF0.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.02.02#2181
#115DiopIpswich TownDEF10.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.2%0.02.09#2063
#116SlaterHull CityMID13.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.2%0.03.29#1043
#117JustinLeedsDEF1.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.2%0.03.12#1254
#118O'ReillyMan CityDEF10.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%2.8%0.2%-3.06.24#20
#119KhusanovMan CityDEF0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.2%0.04.71#215
#120MainooMan UtdMID0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.02.62#1709
#121BotmanNewcastleDEF0.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.03.83#521
#122MukieleSunderlandDEF0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.2%-0.42.77#1604
#123EncisoIpswich TownMID0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.03.62#751
#124BarcolaLiverpoolMID0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.01
#125M.BizotAston VillaGK0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.00.46#3680
#126KamaraAston VillaMID0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.03.09#1303
#127RayanBournemouthMID0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.03.43#942
#128AdamsBournemouthMID0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.01.52#2544
#129EvanilsonBournemouthFWD0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.1%0.03.65#702
#130O.DangoBrentfordMID0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.1%-0.42.96#1431
#131DamsgaardBrentfordMID0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%+0.43.10#1288
#132BoscagliBrightonDEF0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.03.58#802
#133JamesChelseaDEF0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.1%-0.41.76#2361
#134LacroixChelseaDEF0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.1%-2.23.00#1372
#135RichardsCrystal PalaceDEF0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.03.75#601
#136CanvotCrystal PalaceDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.03.40#951
#137YeremyCrystal PalaceMID0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.02.46#1855
#138HughesCrystal PalaceMID1.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%+2.20.23#3901
#139BranthwaiteEvertonDEF0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.1%0.03.04#1333
#140LecomteFulhamGK0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.00.02#5090
#141AndersenFulhamDEF0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.03.45#921
#142BergeFulhamMID0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.02.75#1611
#143PhillipsHull CityGK0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.00.04#4850
#144GilesHull CityDEF1.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.02.88#1498
#145BelloumiHull CityMID0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.1%0.03.00#1385
#146McBurnieHull CityFWD0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.1%0.04.32#272
#147EmersonnIpswich TownFWD0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.03.13#1242
#148DalotMan UtdDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.02.86#1521
#149MartinezMan UtdDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.02.63#1693
#150PopeNewcastleGK0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.00.36#3760
#151NdoyeNott'm ForestMID0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.1%0.03.02#1341
#152WoodNott'm ForestFWD0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.01.29#2821
#153Van de VenSpursDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.02.66#1669
#154BrobbeySunderlandFWD2.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%4.0%0.1%-7.52.96#1442
#155KhalailiCrystal PalaceDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.02.59#1733
#156Norton-CuffyHull CityDEF0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%+0.41
#157Lewis-SkellyArsenalMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.50#1822
#158HincapieArsenalDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.32#2761
#159MosqueraArsenalDEF1.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.9%0.0%-12.31.83#2300
#160GyökeresArsenalFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.78#3291
#161MartinezChelseaGK0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.77#1593
#162PauAston VillaDEF0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.95#470
#163A.GarcíaAston VillaDEF1.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.13#4140
#164BarkleyAston VillaMID0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.27#1063
#165BurrowesAston VillaMID0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.14#4130
#166AlyssonAston VillaMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.09#3001
#167ManzambiAston VillaMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.07#4490
#168ForsterBournemouthGK6.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.04#4820
#169TruffertBournemouthDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.03.16#1190
#170SolerBournemouthDEF0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.13#4150
#171CookBournemouthMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.25#1981
#172ValdimarssonBrentfordGK0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.06#4550
#173FuroBrentfordFWD0.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.06#4560
#174WilsonBrentfordFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.32#2781
#175RushworthCoventry CityGK2.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.6%0.0%-0.42.59#1722
#176SteeleBrightonGK6.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.03#4990
#177DunkBrightonDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.67#645
#178HinshelwoodBrightonMID1.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.94#3140
#179GeorginioBrightonFWD0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.89#3210
#180AyariBrightonMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.35#2742
#181OriolaBrightonMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.09#4310
#182SánchezChelseaGK0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5430
#183ColwillChelseaDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.02.03#2160
#184PalestraChelseaDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.65#3460
#185EnzoMan CityMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.17#2933
#186NetoChelseaMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.10#2052
#187Andrey SantosMan UtdMID0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.36#2731
#188D.EssugoChelseaMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5480
#189DelapNott'm ForestFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.59#2492
#190MheukaChelseaFWD0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.05#4690
#191DovinCoventry CityGK0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.00#5500
#192DasilvaCoventry CityDEF0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.01.39#2682
#193BidwellCoventry CityDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.03#5010
#194AmendaCoventry CityDEF0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.01.35#2752
#195GrimesCoventry CityMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.60#1712
#196Borges RodriguesCoventry CityMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5530
#197AndrewsCoventry CityMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5540
#198Thomas-AsanteCoventry CityFWD0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.01.54#2531
#199SimmsCoventry CityFWD0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.85#3231
#200MatetaCrystal PalaceFWD0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.09#4330
#201KeaneEvertonDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.68#3430
#202O'BrienEvertonDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.65#3470
#203MykolenkoEvertonDEF1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%-0.42.73#1621
#204GarnerEvertonMID0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.17#1182
#205ArmstrongEvertonMID0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.72#1631
#206BetoEvertonFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5640
#207McNallyFulhamGK0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5650
#208WilsonLeedsMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.67#1640
#209ReedFulhamMID0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.17#4050
#210Kusi-AsareFulhamFWD2.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.09#4340
#211DowellHull CityMID0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.18#4020
#212CrooksHull CityMID0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.17#2940
#213GyabiHull CityMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.02#5130
#214WaltonIpswich TownGK0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.08#4440
#215PalmerIpswich TownGK5.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.05#4710
#216ButtonIpswich TownGK1.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.02#5140
#217KipréIpswich TownDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.06#4600
#218GreavesIpswich TownDEF0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.89#2251
#219JohnsonIpswich TownDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5740
#220FatawuIpswich TownMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.14#1222
#221PhilogeneIpswich TownMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.04#4860
#222AkpomIpswich TownFWD0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.60#2480
#223Walle EgeliIpswich TownFWD6.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.54#3570
#224McAteerIpswich TownMID0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.95#3131
#225PerriLeedsGK0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5800
#226BijolLeedsDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.33#1951
#227RodonLeedsDEF3.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.00.07#4530
#228AmpaduLeedsMID0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.03.37#972
#229NmechaLeedsFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.72#2401
#230FrimpongLiverpoolDEF1.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.02.99#1400
#231LuckyLiverpoolDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.05#4730
#232DannsLiverpoolFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.15#4110
#233Matheus N.Man CityDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.31#1960
#234HeavenMan UtdDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.05#3030
#235AmassMan UtdDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.05#4740
#236FletcherMan UtdMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.09#4370
#237ObiMan UtdFWD0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.05#4750
#238TonaliSpursMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.81#1565
#239OsulaNewcastleFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.08#4450
#240NeaveNewcastleFWD0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#6020
#241AbbottNott'm ForestDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#6040
#242BindonNott'm ForestDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#6050
#243I.SangaréNott'm ForestMID0.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.81#2320
#244YatesNott'm ForestMID0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.42#3710
#245AwoniyiCoventry CityFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.86#1532
#246AustinSpursGK1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.02#5200
#247DubravkaSpursGK16.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.00.24#3870
#248DaviesSpursDEF0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.09#4400
#249RowswellSpursDEF0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.04#4920
#250OlusesiSpursMID0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.10#4270
#251RicharlisonSpursFWD0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.00.00#6150
#252ScarlettSpursFWD0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#6160
#253O'NienSunderlandDEF1.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.78#3300
#254MatthewsCrystal PalaceGK0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.01#5250
#255TargettHull CityDEF0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.49#3620
#256ScherpenIpswich TownGK1.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.78#1582
#257PalaciosFulhamMID0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.29#1058
#258TomiyasuCrystal PalaceDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.36#1940
#259CharlesFulhamMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.52#2552
#260HerringtonHull CityDEF0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.49#2581
#261OuattaraIpswich TownDEF0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.74#3351
#262LienouLeedsDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.04#4960
#263CresswellLeedsMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.08#4460
#264RoweAston VillaDEF0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.05#4800
#265ShaharNewcastleDEF0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.06#4650
#266De FougerollesFulhamDEF0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.12#4210
#267AhokaSunderlandMID1.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.22#3950
#268BentleyCoventry CityGK1.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.03#5040
#269CairnsLeedsGK1.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#6260
#270ZepaFulhamMID1.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.29#3830
#271ZettererLeedsGK2.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00
#272J.AnguloSunderlandFWD0.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00
TielemansMan UtdMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.03.55#842
WatkinsAston VillaFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5360
DennisBournemouthGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5370
HillBournemouthDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.03.19#1151
DiakitéBournemouthDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.55#3560
MintehBrightonMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.08#4430
WiefferBrightonDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.11#4230
GustoChelseaDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.06#2101
HatoChelseaDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.08#2083
CaicedoChelseaMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.77#3310
LaviaChelseaMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.02#2171
KitchingCoventry CityDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5510
TchaounaCoventry CityMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.90#2241
SarrCrystal PalaceMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.18#4000
WhartonCrystal PalaceMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.76#592
Strand LarsenCrystal PalaceFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.53#1791
AznouEvertonDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5630
GeorgeEvertonMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.44#18610
LukićIpswich TownMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.12#2032
CoyleHull CityDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.01#3056
DestanHull CityFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5720
BurstowHull CityFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#5730
BogleLeedsDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.28#19714
AaronsonLeedsMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.40#1891
NgumohaLiverpoolMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.48#1830
GravenberchLiverpoolMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.55#1771
SávioSpursMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.24#2863
DorguMan UtdMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.05#2121
MazraouiMan UtdDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.83#2311
AmadMan UtdMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.10#4260
BurnNewcastleDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.09#4380
SenesiSpursDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.43#1870
SpenceSpursDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#6100
UdogieSpursDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.32#2795
MooreSpursMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#6140
ReinildoSunderlandDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.19#2012
DiarraSunderlandMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.12#4200
SadikiSunderlandMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.53#1801
IsidorSunderlandFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.79#2334
SilvaBournemouthDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.89#1481
AraujoLiverpoolDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.99#2208

Top 100k

Top 10k only for this gameweek.

No managers ranked 10,001–100,000 were sampled for this gameweek: that band is captured from 2026-09-13 onward, so earlier gameweeks have the top 10k only.

Method

Effective ownership
Effective ownership (eo_pct in the JSON) as the game scores it: for each player, the weighted sum of multipliers across the tier's managers (0 on the bench, 1 in the starting XI, 2 as captain, 3 as triple captain) divided by the weighted number of managers, times 100. It can exceed 100. Own (own_pct) is the share holding the player anywhere in their 15, XI (xi_pct) the share fielding him, Captain (captain_pct) the share who gave him the armband, and Triple captain (tc_pct) the share of all managers who captained him AND played the chip — it sits inside the captain share. Captures are taken after the deadline (FPL publishes picks only then), so multipliers are the effective ones once auto-substitutions have applied. Each gameweek uses its latest capture.
Who was sampled, and how they're weighted
Managers are sampled from the live standings in rank bands: 1-1,000 (population 1,000), 1,001-10,000 (9,000) and 10,001-100,000 (90,000). Each sampled manager is weighted by band population divided by the number sampled in that band, so every share estimates the whole tier rather than the sample; the bands, sample sizes and weights are printed with each tier. The top 10k tier is ranks 1-10,000 at the capture; the top 100k tier adds the 10,001-100,000 band. A tier is reported only when its bands were sampled (sampling of the 10,001-100,000 band began 2026-09-13), and is otherwise marked unavailable rather than built from the bands that were.
The same-managers column
The same-managers change (d_own_pct, d_eo_pct, d_captain_pct in the JSON) is measured on a matched panel: the managers present in both this gameweek's capture and the previous gameweek's, in the tier at this capture, weighted by band population divided by the panel count in the band. A change is the level on that panel now minus the level on the same panel then, in percentage points. They are null when there is no previous capture to match against, and null for a tier whose panel does not cover every one of its rank bands — under page-cluster sampling of the 10,001-100,000 band that is the normal state of the top-100k panel, so its same-managers column is usually empty.
The model column
Model xP (model_xp) is Sideline Quant's expected points for the gameweek from the latest run before the deadline, summed across a double gameweek; model_rank is the player's place by expected points among every player in that run; model_p_ge_10 is the run's probability of a ten-point haul (null for a double gameweek and for the pre-season bundle, which did not record it); likely_starter means expected minutes over 60. A player the run did not cover has null model fields. GW1 predates run retention and uses the committed pre-season bundle, labelled seed.
What counts as a move
A move is shown two ways. The headline change (this week's level minus last week's: own_pct minus prev_own_pct, and likewise for EO and captain) compares this gameweek's tier level with the previous gameweek's: two independent samples of about 1,000 managers inside the band at each capture, so it carries sampling noise of roughly ±4 points at 95% on a share near 30% (about ±9 where a band holds only ~200 managers) and a change inside that is noise, not a move. The matched-panel delta (d_own_pct, d_eo_pct, d_captain_pct) is the same managers in both captures, so it is free of sample churn, but the sample is redrawn from the moving standings each capture and the panel is typically ~50 managers, roughly ±14 points. prev_* is 0.0 when the previous capture existed and nobody in the tier held the player; both readings are null when there is no previous capture.
The template-vs-model rule
Over-owned: of the twenty highest-EO players, the eight the model ranks lowest by expected points. Under-owned: of the model's twenty highest expected-points likely starters (expected minutes over 60), the eight with the lowest effective ownership in this tier.
How it's scored
Once a gameweek settles, every row carries the player's realised FPL points, summed across the gameweek's fixtures (null when the player has no record for the gameweek, which is absence, not zero), and each disagreement list carries the mean points of its scored rows. The lists are fixed at the deadline's ownership and prediction; the points are filled in afterwards and nothing is re-selected. Until the gameweek settles, points and the means are null and the previous gameweek's verdict is shown, if that gameweek has settled. A player held in the previous capture and by nobody now is listed at 0.0 with no EO rank, so a sale out of the tier is visible.

Top 10k — bands and weights

Rank bandSampledWeight per manager
1-10002005.00
1001-1000080011.25

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