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Top-10k picks

Elite 10k Analysis

Track what the current top 10k managers are doing with their teams week by week.

Top 10k

1,000 managers sampled from the live top 10k after the deadline, weighted so the sample stands for all 10,000. Bands and weights are under Method.

Bought and sold

Gameweek 3's 1,000 managers against this gameweek's 1,000. The top 10k is a moving group, so this is the template moving, not 1,000 named managers trading. EO counts a captain twice and a triple captain three times, so it runs past 100. On a share near 30%, a change inside about ±4 points is sampling noise. The last column is the 45 managers held in both captures — churn-free, but at n=45 roughly ±14.

Bought — largest rise in EO
PlayerPosEO last week → nowChangeCaptain changeSame managers (n=45)
PalmerMID5.3%153.3%+148.0+61.6+159.9
João PedroFWD32.2%132.8%+100.6+29.8+100.2
RogersMID3.7%76.8%+73.1+1.8+71.6
RayaGK14.4%72.6%+58.20.0+48.9
KonsaDEF2.8%40.1%+37.30.0+25.3
CalafioriDEF48.2%78.3%+30.10.0+45.4
GabrielDEF2.1%32.1%+30.0+0.1+23.9
TarkowskiDEF2.2%16.1%+13.90.0+12.0
SzoboszlaiMID44.3%57.1%+12.8+0.1+9.6
Calvert-LewinFWD19.3%29.6%+10.3-0.1+34.8
Sold — largest fall in EO
PlayerPosEO last week → nowChangeCaptain changeSame managers (n=45)
HaalandFWD215.0%42.3%-172.7-88.6-157.7
CherkiMID50.6%4.5%-46.1-0.1-55.6
AjerDEF35.0%3.0%-32.00.0-33.8
GvardiolDEF38.5%10.2%-28.3-0.1-22.9
FodenMID26.2%1.2%-25.0-0.2-34.8
ThiagoFWD27.4%4.3%-23.1-0.1-19.9
KelleherGK22.0%0.7%-21.30.0-22.3
GakpoMID25.7%4.4%-21.3-0.2-20.5
De CuyperDEF54.0%35.5%-18.5-0.1-18.9
VerbruggenGK26.4%8.6%-17.80.0+2.4

The captaincy

Share of the 1,000 managers who gave each player the armband. Triple captain is the share of all managers who captained him and played the chip, so it sits inside the Captain share. Model xP is the deadline run’s expected points for the player, uncaptained, as are the points. P(10+) is the run's probability of a ten-point haul.

Captaincy in the Top 10k
#PlayerCaptainTriple captainModel xPP(10+)
1PalmerChelsea · MID61.6%15.7%5.8618.8%
2João PedroChelsea · FWD29.8%3.5%6.9826.6%
3IsakLiverpool · FWD4.0%0.3%5.3715.3%
4RogersChelsea · MID1.8%0.1%5.7918.7%
5HaalandMan City · FWD1.3%0.0%5.2915.1%
6B.FernandesMan Utd · MID0.6%0.0%4.7012.4%
7SakaArsenal · MID0.4%0.0%4.5312.8%
8GabrielArsenal · DEF0.1%0.0%5.2513.6%
9YeremyCrystal Palace · MID0.1%0.0%4.2110.3%
10Strand LarsenCrystal Palace · FWD0.1%0.0%2.974.8%

Template vs model

Over-owned: of the twenty highest-EO players, the eight the model ranks lowest by expected points. Under-owned: of the model's twenty highest expected-points likely starters (expected minutes over 60), the eight with the lowest effective ownership in this tier.
Over-owned — the template holds, the model ranks low
PlayerEOEO rankModel xPModel rank
TarkowskiEverton · DEF16.1%#183.34#100
KonsaArsenal · DEF40.1%#93.71#59
SchadeBrentford · MID13.3%#203.80#52
RayaArsenal · GK72.6%#53.92#46
Gibbs-WhiteNott'm Forest · MID19.6%#164.01#42
GroßBrighton · MID19.2%#174.20#33
ØdegaardArsenal · MID14.1%#194.27#28
CalafioriArsenal · DEF78.3%#34.28#27
Under-owned — the model ranks high, the template doesn't hold
PlayerEOEO rankModel xPModel rank
NetoChelsea · MID0.1%#1434.61#14
RichardsCrystal Palace · DEF0.1%#1444.44#20
LacroixChelsea · DEF1.5%#605.52#4
JamesChelsea · DEF1.7%#594.70#11
ThiagoBrentford · FWD4.3%#394.45#19
TavernierBournemouth · MID6.7%#334.69#13
WirtzLiverpool · MID10.1%#264.95#9
VirgilLiverpool · DEF10.8%#244.86#10

Last week's verdict — Gameweek 3

The same rule applied to Gameweek 3, scored against what the players returned.

The template's eight averaged 2.9 points; the model's eight averaged 3.6. Eight players each, one gameweek.

Over-owned: of the twenty highest-EO players, the eight the model ranks lowest by expected points. Under-owned: of the model's twenty highest expected-points likely starters (expected minutes over 60), the eight with the lowest effective ownership in this tier.
Over-owned — the template holds, the model ranks low
PlayerEOEO rankModel xPModel rankPoints
VerbruggenBrighton · GK26.4%#133.39#963
João PedroChelsea · FWD32.2%#113.68#631
KelleherBrentford · GK22.0%#173.82#542
GroßBrighton · MID24.6%#163.98#431
Calvert-LewinLeeds · FWD19.3%#204.00#411
GakpoLiverpool · MID25.7%#154.13#3611
AjerBrentford · DEF35.0%#94.20#322
CalafioriArsenal · DEF48.2%#54.26#292
Under-owned — the model ranks high, the template doesn't hold
PlayerEOEO rankModel xPModel rankPoints
O'ReillyMan City · DEF0.2%#1186.24#20
RúbenMan City · DEF0.6%#905.03#136
AndersonMan City · MID0.8%#824.93#153
GuéhiMan City · DEF3.1%#535.87#58
CollinsBrentford · DEF11.1%#314.87#171
SakaArsenal · MID14.8%#275.05#122
WirtzLiverpool · MID14.9%#264.84#203
VirgilLiverpool · DEF15.4%#254.86#186

Effective ownership, every player

All 329 players held by at least one of the 1,000 managers in this capture or the previous one, sorted by effective ownership; a player the tier has sold out of entirely sits at the foot at 0.0 with no rank. Own is the share holding the player anywhere in the 15; XI the share starting him; C and TC the share who captained and triple-captained him; EO is Σ multiplier ÷ managers × 100. EO last week is Gameweek 3's level in a different sample of 1,000 managers. "Same managers, change" is the EO change on the 45 managers held in both captures.

Effective ownership of every player in the Top 10k
#PlayerTeamPosOwnXICTCEO last weekEOSame managers, changeModel xPModel rankPoints
#1PalmerChelseaMID76.1%76.1%61.6%15.7%5.3%153.3%+159.95.86#2
#2João PedroChelseaFWD99.5%99.5%29.8%3.5%32.2%132.8%+100.26.98#1
#3CalafioriArsenalDEF78.3%78.3%0.0%0.0%48.2%78.3%+45.44.28#27
#4RogersChelseaMID74.9%74.9%1.8%0.1%3.7%76.8%+71.65.79#3
#5RayaArsenalGK72.7%72.6%0.0%0.0%14.4%72.6%+48.93.92#46
#6SzoboszlaiLiverpoolMID57.3%56.9%0.1%0.0%44.3%57.1%+9.65.19#8
#7IsakLiverpoolFWD50.2%50.2%4.0%0.3%67.8%54.5%-23.45.37#5
#8HaalandMan CityFWD41.1%41.0%1.3%0.0%215.0%42.3%-157.75.29#6
#9KonsaArsenalDEF40.5%40.1%0.0%0.0%2.8%40.1%+25.33.71#59
#10B.FernandesMan UtdMID39.6%39.0%0.6%0.0%45.3%39.6%+6.14.70#12
#11De CuyperBrightonDEF37.9%35.5%0.0%0.0%54.0%35.5%-18.94.58#15
#12GabrielArsenalDEF32.1%32.0%0.1%0.0%2.1%32.1%+23.95.25#7
#13Calvert-LewinLeedsFWD36.1%29.6%0.0%0.0%19.3%29.6%+34.84.37#25
#14SakaArsenalMID21.4%21.4%0.4%0.0%14.8%21.8%+9.04.53#17
#15MbeumoMan UtdMID25.2%20.3%0.0%0.0%33.5%20.3%+3.24.57#16
#16Gibbs-WhiteNott'm ForestMID19.8%19.6%0.1%0.0%19.5%19.6%-6.94.01#42
#17GroßBrightonMID22.7%19.2%0.0%0.0%24.6%19.2%-4.84.20#33
#18TarkowskiEvertonDEF18.3%16.1%0.0%0.0%2.2%16.1%+12.03.34#100
#19ØdegaardArsenalMID14.4%14.1%0.0%0.0%17.9%14.1%-1.14.27#28
#20SchadeBrentfordMID13.9%13.3%0.0%0.0%17.7%13.3%-13.83.80#52
#21WissaNewcastleFWD17.6%13.1%0.0%0.0%18.1%13.1%-4.54.41#22
#22WhiteArsenalDEF12.1%12.1%0.0%0.0%10.5%12.1%+14.94.48#18
#23KinskySpursGK26.9%11.8%0.0%0.0%6.8%11.8%+2.93.24#114
#24VirgilLiverpoolDEF11.2%10.8%0.0%0.0%15.4%10.8%-18.94.86#10
#25GvardiolMan CityDEF16.8%10.2%0.0%0.0%38.5%10.2%-22.93.36#95
#26WirtzLiverpoolMID10.2%10.1%0.0%0.0%14.9%10.1%-5.04.95#9
#27Van HeckeSpursDEF10.7%9.5%0.0%0.0%0.6%9.5%+0.54.24#29
#28N.WilliamsNott'm ForestDEF13.6%9.1%0.0%0.0%6.7%9.1%-4.83.10#126
#29VerbruggenBrightonGK28.2%8.6%0.0%0.0%26.4%8.6%+2.43.61#67
#30HallNewcastleDEF18.9%8.1%0.0%0.0%14.4%8.1%-10.93.27#108
#31VuskovicBrightonDEF8.9%7.9%0.0%0.0%6.6%7.9%+4.04.06#38
#32MuharemovićLeedsDEF13.2%7.3%0.0%0.0%3.4%7.3%+4.03.64#64
#33TavernierBournemouthMID7.3%6.7%0.0%0.0%0.3%6.7%+0.54.69#13
#34SemenyoMan CityMID7.4%6.4%0.0%0.0%21.4%6.4%-18.43.55#74
#35BarryEvertonFWD16.1%6.3%0.0%0.0%0.3%6.3%+8.04.38#24
#36TzolisArsenalMID6.6%5.6%0.0%0.0%6.0%5.6%+4.03.69#60
#37CherkiMan CityMID5.2%4.4%0.1%0.0%50.6%4.5%-55.63.58#70
#38GakpoLiverpoolMID5.7%4.4%0.0%0.0%25.7%4.4%-20.53.59#69
#39ThiagoBrentfordFWD4.7%4.3%0.0%0.0%27.4%4.3%-19.94.45#19
#40M.SangaréBrentfordMID10.0%4.3%0.0%0.0%19.0%4.3%-19.92.79#158
#41Dewsbury-HallEvertonMID5.9%4.2%0.0%0.0%1.5%4.2%-0.53.51#78
#42DavisIpswich TownDEF11.0%3.3%0.0%0.0%0.7%3.3%0.02.86#150
#43BarnesNewcastleMID4.1%3.1%0.0%0.0%4.1%3.1%-0.53.35#99
#44AjerBrentfordDEF5.8%3.0%0.0%0.0%35.0%3.0%-33.83.05#130
#45GomezBrightonMID6.2%2.9%0.0%0.0%7.9%2.9%+3.54.04#40
#46NdiayeMan CityMID14.4%2.8%0.0%0.0%4.7%2.8%-7.43.42#85
#47JacquetLiverpoolDEF3.0%2.7%0.0%0.0%2.5%2.7%0.03.98#44
#48BarcolaLiverpoolMID2.7%2.7%0.0%0.0%0.2%2.7%+0.52.39#198
#49MitchellCrystal PalaceDEF4.2%2.6%0.0%0.0%1.6%2.6%+0.54.00#43
#50Strand LarsenCrystal PalaceFWD2.9%2.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%2.6%+0.52.97#140
#51MykolenkoEvertonDEF5.0%2.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.6%+0.52.59#177
#52KhalailiCrystal PalaceDEF2.9%2.6%0.0%0.0%0.1%2.6%0.04.41#23
#53ThomasCoventry CityDEF15.0%2.4%0.0%0.0%0.6%2.4%+6.92.98#139
#54HavertzArsenalFWD2.5%2.3%0.0%0.0%1.1%2.3%+4.03.91#47
#55ScottBournemouthMID2.9%2.3%0.0%0.0%0.2%2.3%+0.54.13#35
#56A.BeckerLiverpoolGK2.4%2.1%0.0%0.0%3.8%2.1%-6.93.27#107
#57MarmoushSpursFWD2.2%1.9%0.0%0.0%0.3%1.9%+6.44.33#26
#58GuéhiMan CityDEF3.0%1.8%0.0%0.0%3.1%1.8%-0.53.55#73
#59JamesChelseaDEF1.7%1.7%0.0%0.0%0.1%1.7%0.04.70#11
#60LacroixChelseaDEF1.5%1.5%0.0%0.0%0.1%1.5%0.05.52#4
#61RobertsonSpursDEF2.5%1.5%0.0%0.0%0.3%1.5%0.02.62#176
#62BranthwaiteEvertonDEF2.5%1.4%0.0%0.0%0.1%1.4%0.02.94#142
#63ElangaNewcastleMID1.9%1.3%0.0%0.0%4.2%1.3%-6.43.25#109
#64Pedro PorroSpursDEF2.2%1.3%0.0%0.0%1.0%1.3%-0.51.94#236
#65FodenMan CityMID2.3%1.2%0.0%0.0%26.2%1.2%-34.83.22#115
#66KayodeBrentfordDEF2.6%1.1%0.0%0.0%8.9%1.1%-10.42.32#203
#67YeremyCrystal PalaceMID1.5%0.9%0.1%0.0%0.1%1.1%-0.54.21#32
#68MaguireMan UtdDEF18.9%1.1%0.0%0.0%7.8%1.1%-4.52.64#174
#69RiceArsenalMID1.0%1.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%1.0%0.03.90#48
#70HendersonCrystal PalaceGK1.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.9%0.03.37#93
#71ThiawNewcastleDEF3.4%0.9%0.0%0.0%1.6%0.9%0.03.39#91
#72MartinezChelseaGK0.9%0.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.8%0.03.73#55
#73EvanilsonBournemouthFWD1.0%0.8%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.8%0.04.04#39
#74StachLeedsMID1.1%0.8%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.8%-0.54.08#37
#75TonaliSpursMID1.1%0.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.8%0.03.62#66
#76SuzukiAston VillaGK1.0%0.8%0.0%0.0%13.3%0.8%-12.03.13#124
#77KelleherBrentfordGK1.6%0.7%0.0%0.0%22.0%0.7%-22.33.28#105
#78ColwillChelseaDEF1.0%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.02.18#215
#79O'SheaIpswich TownDEF11.2%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.7%0.02.67#169
#80KerkezLiverpoolDEF0.7%0.7%0.0%0.0%1.4%0.7%-0.53.50#81
#81O'ReillyMan CityDEF1.7%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.7%0.03.04#134
#82Van de VenSpursDEF1.2%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.7%0.03.56#72
#83JaneltBrentfordMID1.6%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.6%0.03.28#106
#84KamadaCrystal PalaceMID0.6%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.03.39#89
#85DiopIpswich TownDEF8.6%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.6%0.02.68#166
#86McBurnieHull CityFWD3.7%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.6%0.03.24#112
#87YalcouyéBrightonMID4.9%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.6%-2.93.31#104
#88BuendíaAston VillaMID0.6%0.5%0.0%0.0%3.6%0.5%-4.53.80#50
#89F.KadıoğluBrightonDEF1.3%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.5%0.03.42#84
#90van EwijkCoventry CityDEF7.5%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.5%0.02.66#170
#91PickfordEvertonGK1.3%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.5%+0.53.21#116
#92EganHull CityDEF10.6%0.5%0.0%0.0%5.7%0.5%-8.01.58#264
#93ShawMan UtdDEF10.8%0.5%0.0%0.0%7.8%0.5%+3.51.22#288
#94CunhaMan UtdMID0.7%0.5%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.5%0.02.96#141
#95KluivertBournemouthMID0.6%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.4%+0.53.80#51
#96HatoChelseaDEF0.4%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%+0.53.33#101
#97BogleLeedsDEF1.6%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.03.10#125
#98Igor JesusNott'm ForestFWD1.4%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.4%+0.52.64#175
#99AraujoLiverpoolDEF0.6%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.03.57#71
#100EncisoIpswich TownMID0.4%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.4%+2.93.75#53
#101DunkBrightonDEF0.6%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.03.63#65
#102EnzoMan CityMID0.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.03.03#136
#103MuñozNott'm ForestDEF0.9%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%0.02.58#178
#104CanvotCrystal PalaceDEF0.5%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.3%0.04.08#36
#105NketiahCrystal PalaceFWD0.5%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%+3.53.39#90
#106DonnarummaMan CityGK1.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%3.6%0.3%-1.12.84#153
#107TraffordLeedsGK1.4%0.3%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.3%-4.03.51#79
#108RashfordMan UtdMID0.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.3%0.02.54#182
#109SelsNott'm ForestGK1.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.3%0.03.15#122
#110MurilloNott'm ForestDEF0.4%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.3%+3.53.36#96
#111AinaNott'm ForestDEF1.9%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.3%0.02.41#197
#112AndersonMan CityMID0.6%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.8%0.3%0.03.98#45
#113E.Le FéeSunderlandMID3.1%0.3%0.0%0.0%2.5%0.3%0.03.72#57
#114XhakaSunderlandMID1.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.3%0.03.08#128
#115BrobbeySunderlandFWD5.8%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.3%0.02.92#144
#116GonzaloFulhamFWD1.9%0.3%0.0%0.0%2.0%0.3%-1.13.72#58
#117MendyHull CityDEF7.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%1.8%0.3%-2.11.53#268
#118DedićNewcastleDEF0.9%0.3%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%-0.51.87#243
#119MosqueraArsenalDEF0.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%+3.51.03#312
#120CashAston VillaDEF0.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%2.9%0.2%-1.12.36#201
#121TruffertBournemouthDEF0.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%+3.53.51#77
#122RayanBournemouthMID0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.03.52#75
#123HinshelwoodBrightonMID0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.00.09#435
#124DisasiCrystal PalaceDEF0.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.02.76#162
#125ArmstrongEvertonMID0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.02.84#152
#126BelloumiHull CityMID0.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.02.50#186
#127JustinLeedsDEF1.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.2%-1.13.68#61
#128FrimpongLiverpoolDEF0.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.02.07#222
#129RúbenMan CityDEF0.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.2%0.03.15#121
#130SávioSpursMID0.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.02.76#163
#131LammensMan UtdGK4.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%1.6%0.2%-3.52.77#161
#132BotmanNewcastleDEF0.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.2%0.03.47#83
#133HumeSunderlandDEF6.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%1.4%0.2%0.01.97#232
#134MaatsenAston VillaDEF0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%1.9%0.1%-4.03.50#80
#135HillBournemouthDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.03.48#82
#136DamsgaardBrentfordMID0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.03.52#76
#137RushworthCoventry CityGK2.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.02.89#147
#138SteeleBrightonGK4.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%+3.50.02#518
#139KostoulasBrightonFWD0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.04.23#31
#140GustoChelseaDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.03.60#68
#141FofanaChelseaDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.04.42#21
#142PalestraChelseaDEF1.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.00.07#453
#143NetoChelseaMID0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.04.61#14
#144RichardsCrystal PalaceDEF0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.04.44#20
#145WilsonLeedsMID0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.02.38#199
#146KingFulhamMID1.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%1.8%0.1%-1.13.24#111
#147AjayiHull CityDEF2.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%2.5%0.1%-3.51.72#254
#148GilesHull CityDEF1.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.01.55#267
#149PalmerIpswich TownGK3.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.00.07#457
#150EmersonnIpswich TownFWD0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%-0.53.24#113
#151AkpomIpswich TownFWD0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.00.86#323
#152Walle EgeliIpswich TownFWD2.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.00.44#367
#153AaronsonLeedsMID0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.02.42#194
#154MunozLiverpoolMID0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.1%-0.53.13#123
#155MazraouiMan UtdDEF0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.01.14#298
#156Jair CunhaNott'm ForestDEF0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.03.02#138
#157NdoyeNott'm ForestMID0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.02.68#168
#158DubravkaSpursGK17.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.00.19#405
#159BallardSunderlandDEF4.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%1.9%0.1%-0.52.89#148
#160ScherpenIpswich TownGK5.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.03.10#127
#161HorníčekNewcastleGK0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.1%+0.53.17#120
#162TzolakisHull CityGK2.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%4.0%0.1%-5.02.78#160
#163CharlesFulhamMID0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.02.19#214
#164OuattaraIpswich TownDEF0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.01.06#306
#165Maitland-NilesEvertonDEF0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.01.28#282
#166MaduekeArsenalMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.05#307
#167GyökeresArsenalFWD0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.95#234
#168M.BizotAston VillaGK0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.26#392
#169A.GarcíaAston VillaDEF0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.08#441
#170McGinnAston VillaMID0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.0%-0.54.02#41
#171KamaraAston VillaMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.90#145
#172BurrowesAston VillaMID0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.10#427
#173George HemmingsAston VillaMID1.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.02.79#156
#174WatkinsAston VillaFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#559
#175PetrovićBournemouthGK2.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.03.17#119
#176ForsterBournemouthGK2.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.02#514
#177SolerBournemouthDEF0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.10#428
#178AdamsBournemouthMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.44#191
#179ChristieBournemouthMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.81#326
#180CollinsBrentfordDEF0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%11.1%0.0%-8.50.09#432
#181Lewis-PotterBrentfordMID0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.0%0.03.85#49
#182O.DangoBrentfordMID0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.46#190
#183FuroBrentfordFWD0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.06#463
#184BoscagliBrightonDEF0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.03.67#62
#185GeorginioBrightonFWD0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.02#313
#186AyariBrightonMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.66#63
#187SánchezChelseaGK0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#566
#188GarnachoAston VillaMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.71#256
#189N.JacksonAston VillaFWD0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.5%0.0%-4.04.24#30
#190DovinCoventry CityGK0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#573
#191DasilvaCoventry CityDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.48#187
#192AmendaCoventry CityDEF0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.64#172
#193GrimesCoventry CityMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.05#131
#194ShepherdCoventry CityMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.15#411
#195Thomas-AsanteCoventry CityFWD0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.68#258
#196SimmsCoventry CityFWD0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.67#259
#197SarrCrystal PalaceMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.14#414
#198HughesCrystal PalaceMID1.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.62#261
#199MatetaCrystal PalaceFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.11#424
#200GarnerEvertonMID0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.41#86
#201GeorgeEvertonMID0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.35#98
#202BetoEvertonFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#589
#203LenoFulhamGK1.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.2%0.0%-3.53.05#132
#204LecomteFulhamGK1.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.02#522
#205RobinsonFulhamDEF0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%-3.52.06#223
#206LukićIpswich TownMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.58#179
#207SessegnonFulhamDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.21#290
#208ReedFulhamMID0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.12#421
#209MunizFulhamFWD0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.20#291
#210Kusi-AsareFulhamFWD2.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.06#466
#211PhillipsHull CityGK0.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.02#524
#212CoyleHull CityDEF0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.15#296
#213MillarHull CityMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#595
#214CrooksHull CityMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.15#297
#215SlaterHull CityMID8.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.02.64#173
#216DestanHull CityFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#598
#217ButtonIpswich TownGK1.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.02#525
#218GreavesIpswich TownDEF0.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.43#193
#219HirstIpswich TownFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#603
#220McAteerIpswich TownMID0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.23#287
#221BijolLeedsDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.80#155
#222RodonLeedsDEF2.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.12#422
#223GudmundssonLeedsDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.69#165
#224AmpaduLeedsMID0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.72#56
#225NmechaLeedsFWD0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.86#245
#226Mateo JosephLeedsFWD0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.02#526
#227WoodmanLiverpoolGK0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.04#488
#228JarosLiverpoolGK0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.01#543
#229LuckyLiverpoolDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.04#490
#230LewisMan CityDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.69#339
#231HeatonMan UtdGK0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#624
#232DalotMan UtdDEF0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.27#207
#233YoroMan UtdDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.08#302
#234AmassMan UtdDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.03#508
#235MainooMan UtdMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.02.68#167
#236FletcherMan UtdMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.07#460
#237ŠeškoMan UtdFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.06#224
#238ObiMan UtdFWD0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.04#492
#239BurnNewcastleDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.06#468
#240WillockNewcastleMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.22#211
#241WoltemadeNewcastleFWD0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#628
#242NeaveNewcastleFWD0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#629
#243JohnNott'm ForestGK0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.09#440
#244MilenkovićNott'm ForestDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.03.19#117
#245YatesNott'm ForestMID0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.32#380
#246WoodNott'm ForestFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.59#263
#247AwoniyiCoventry CityFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.38#92
#248AustinSpursGK0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.01#547
#249SenesiSpursDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.02#229
#250UdogieSpursDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.64#345
#251ByfieldSpursDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.04#494
#252RowswellSpursDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.04#495
#253MaddisonSpursMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.30#281
#254OlusesiSpursMID0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.08#448
#255SolankeSpursFWD0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.46#272
#256RicharlisonSpursFWD1.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#642
#257ScarlettSpursFWD0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#643
#258RoefsSunderlandGK1.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%-0.53.04#135
#259MukieleSunderlandDEF0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.02.79#157
#260ReinildoSunderlandDEF0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.23#209
#261O'NienSunderlandDEF1.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.51#356
#262N.AnguloSunderlandMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.91#240
#263IsidorSunderlandFWD0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.71#257
#264MatthewsCrystal PalaceGK0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.02#531
#265TargettHull CityDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.23#398
#266SilvaBournemouthDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.25#110
#267PalaciosFulhamMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.51#184
#268YirenkyiCoventry CityMID0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.93#238
#269HerringtonHull CityDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.80#328
#270ElvediLeedsDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.29#206
#271Di GregorioBournemouthGK0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.05#481
#272BraithwaiteMan CityDEF0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.31#384
#273BentleyCoventry CityGK4.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.04#500
#274CairnsLeedsGK0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.01#548
#275ZettererLeedsGK1.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.02#533
#276Norton-CuffyHull CityDEF0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.00.81#327
#277J.AnguloSunderlandFWD0.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.17#408
#278GrahamEvertonMID0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.11#426
#279#6560.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0
Lewis-SkellyArsenalMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.41#195
HincapieArsenalDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.29#204
PauAston VillaDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.55#266
BarkleyAston VillaMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.39#88
AlyssonAston VillaMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.04#311
ManzambiAston VillaMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.46#363
CookBournemouthMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.48#271
ValdimarssonBrentfordGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.04#483
WilsonBrentfordFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.21#289
OriolaBrightonMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.07#452
Andrey SantosMan UtdMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.15#295
D.EssugoChelseaMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#571
DelapNott'm ForestFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.02.37#200
MheukaChelseaFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.06#464
BidwellCoventry CityDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.05#473
Borges RodriguesCoventry CityMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#576
AndrewsCoventry CityMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#577
KeaneEvertonDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.52#355
O'BrienEvertonDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.45#364
McNallyFulhamGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#590
AndersenFulhamDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.14#216
CastagneFulhamDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.02.36#202
BergeFulhamMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.01.84#246
DowellHull CityMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.13#417
GyabiHull CityMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.01#541
WaltonIpswich TownGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.07#456
KipréIpswich TownDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.07#458
JohnsonIpswich TownDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#600
FatawuIpswich TownMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.03.04#133
PhilogeneIpswich TownMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.66#343
PerriLeedsGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#606
DannsLiverpoolFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.13#418
Matheus N.Man CityDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.40#276
KhusanovMan CityDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.03.07#129
MartinezMan UtdDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.02.14#217
HeavenMan UtdDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.55#351
PopeNewcastleGK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%-0.50.23#397
OsulaNewcastleFWD0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.09#439
AbbottNott'm ForestDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#631
BindonNott'm ForestDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#632
I.SangaréNott'm ForestMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.20#293
DaviesSpursDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.08#447
TomiyasuCrystal PalaceDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.01.32#279
LienouLeedsDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.03#511
CresswellLeedsMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.07#461
RoweAston VillaDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.04#499
ShaharNewcastleDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#652
De FougerollesFulhamDEF0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.00#653
AhokaSunderlandMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.12#423
ZepaFulhamMID0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00.16#410

Top 100k

Top 10k only for this gameweek.

No managers ranked 10,001–100,000 were sampled for this gameweek: that band is captured from 2026-09-13 onward, so earlier gameweeks have the top 10k only.

Method

Effective ownership
Effective ownership (eo_pct in the JSON) as the game scores it: for each player, the weighted sum of multipliers across the tier's managers (0 on the bench, 1 in the starting XI, 2 as captain, 3 as triple captain) divided by the weighted number of managers, times 100. It can exceed 100. Own (own_pct) is the share holding the player anywhere in their 15, XI (xi_pct) the share fielding him, Captain (captain_pct) the share who gave him the armband, and Triple captain (tc_pct) the share of all managers who captained him AND played the chip — it sits inside the captain share. Captures are taken after the deadline (FPL publishes picks only then), so multipliers are the effective ones once auto-substitutions have applied. Each gameweek uses its latest capture.
Who was sampled, and how they're weighted
Managers are sampled from the live standings in rank bands: 1-1,000 (population 1,000), 1,001-10,000 (9,000) and 10,001-100,000 (90,000). Each sampled manager is weighted by band population divided by the number sampled in that band, so every share estimates the whole tier rather than the sample; the bands, sample sizes and weights are printed with each tier. The top 10k tier is ranks 1-10,000 at the capture; the top 100k tier adds the 10,001-100,000 band. A tier is reported only when its bands were sampled (sampling of the 10,001-100,000 band began 2026-09-13), and is otherwise marked unavailable rather than built from the bands that were.
The same-managers column
The same-managers change (d_own_pct, d_eo_pct, d_captain_pct in the JSON) is measured on a matched panel: the managers present in both this gameweek's capture and the previous gameweek's, in the tier at this capture, weighted by band population divided by the panel count in the band. A change is the level on that panel now minus the level on the same panel then, in percentage points. They are null when there is no previous capture to match against, and null for a tier whose panel does not cover every one of its rank bands — under page-cluster sampling of the 10,001-100,000 band that is the normal state of the top-100k panel, so its same-managers column is usually empty.
The model column
Model xP (model_xp) is Sideline Quant's expected points for the gameweek from the latest run before the deadline, summed across a double gameweek; model_rank is the player's place by expected points among every player in that run; model_p_ge_10 is the run's probability of a ten-point haul (null for a double gameweek and for the pre-season bundle, which did not record it); likely_starter means expected minutes over 60. A player the run did not cover has null model fields. GW1 predates run retention and uses the committed pre-season bundle, labelled seed.
What counts as a move
A move is shown two ways. The headline change (this week's level minus last week's: own_pct minus prev_own_pct, and likewise for EO and captain) compares this gameweek's tier level with the previous gameweek's: two independent samples of about 1,000 managers inside the band at each capture, so it carries sampling noise of roughly ±4 points at 95% on a share near 30% (about ±9 where a band holds only ~200 managers) and a change inside that is noise, not a move. The matched-panel delta (d_own_pct, d_eo_pct, d_captain_pct) is the same managers in both captures, so it is free of sample churn, but the sample is redrawn from the moving standings each capture and the panel is typically ~50 managers, roughly ±14 points. prev_* is 0.0 when the previous capture existed and nobody in the tier held the player; both readings are null when there is no previous capture.
The template-vs-model rule
Over-owned: of the twenty highest-EO players, the eight the model ranks lowest by expected points. Under-owned: of the model's twenty highest expected-points likely starters (expected minutes over 60), the eight with the lowest effective ownership in this tier.
How it's scored
Once a gameweek settles, every row carries the player's realised FPL points, summed across the gameweek's fixtures (null when the player has no record for the gameweek, which is absence, not zero), and each disagreement list carries the mean points of its scored rows. The lists are fixed at the deadline's ownership and prediction; the points are filled in afterwards and nothing is re-selected. Until the gameweek settles, points and the means are null and the previous gameweek's verdict is shown, if that gameweek has settled. A player held in the previous capture and by nobody now is listed at 0.0 with no EO rank, so a sale out of the tier is visible.

Top 10k — bands and weights

Rank bandSampledWeight per manager
1-10002005.00
1001-1000080011.25

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