Players set to feast on the best opening fixtures
Six-week expected points for the clubs with the kindest opening runs. Mbeumo leads the whole board, a £5.0m Newcastle defender is the best value in the game, and the crowd has moved a long way on some of these names in three weeks.
A soft fixture list only pays out if the right players are on the pitch for it. We ranked every club’s opening six by model λ-diff in a companion note; this piece takes the clubs at the top of that list and works out which of their players are best placed to bank the points.
Numbers are six-week expected points (GW1–6) from the 10 August run, 10,000 simulations a player. p_start is the model’s probability a player starts a given match.
Arsenal have the cleanest calendar
Coventry, Villa, Chelsea, Sunderland, Brighton, Leeds — the best λ-diff in the league at +1.04. Interestingly, the model wants the defenders here more than the forwards.
Second on the entire board and the highest-projecting defender in the game, with Coventry and Leeds at home the weeks he should feast on. Ownership has climbed from 21.4% on 23 July to 26.6%, so the secret is out — but he still costs less than every premium midfielder above him.
Two pounds cheaper than Saka, one point ahead of him over six weeks, and far likelier to start (0.84 against 0.65). Nobody ever won a mini-league bragging about owning Declan Rice, but the numbers keep landing on his side.
Man City are soft until Anfield
Five positive fixtures then Liverpool away in GW6. City have also rebuilt: Semenyo, Elliot Anderson and Marc Guéhi are all in the squad now, which spreads the attacking returns wider than it used to.
Third on the board, ahead of his own centre-forward, at under half the price. An attacking full-back with Bournemouth, Coventry and Sunderland all at home inside the six. For City exposure without the £15.5m ticket, the model sees no real contest here.
Seventh over six weeks, and second among forwards behind Ollie Watkins. At 73.9% owned he functions like an entry fee: you gain little when he scores and lose plenty when he scores without you. That's a genuine argument for holding him, even if it says nothing about value.
The second City defender, thirteenth overall, half a million cheaper than O’Reilly. Doubling up on a City back line with this fixture list is a defensible way to spend the money you saved on the striker.
Liverpool carry the middle of the run
Fourth on the board with the best start probability of anyone in the top ten (0.87), and Forest, Ipswich and Fulham follow the Newcastle opener. The one thing working against him is that the field has caught on: 31.9% owned on 23 July, 44.8% now.
Ninth overall at a third of Szoboszlai’s ownership. Two points behind him over six weeks for fifty pence more. If you want Liverpool’s midfield without buying what everyone else already owns, this is the one.
Eighth on the board and the third-best defender in the game, owned by one manager in six. Three home games in the six, against Forest, Fulham and City.
United, while it lasts
Hull away then Ipswich at home is the best opening pair any club has (+3.02 combined). Then it turns: Everton, City and Fulham are all mildly negative before Spurs at home in GW6.
The highest six-week projection of any player in the game, having pulled clear of Szoboszlai over the past few weeks. Ownership has kept pace — 13.2% on 23 July against 22.4% now — so the edge is smaller than it was, but he remains the first name on this list.
Fifth overall, with penalties, free kicks and a 0.86 start probability — probably the most reliable points source in the premium bracket, provided you can swallow the £12.0m price and the 48.3% ownership.
Newcastle, where the cheap defenders are
Liverpool and Spurs first, then Bournemouth, Leeds, Hull and Coventry. The run turns much kinder after a fortnight, and the way in is through the back line rather than the attack — Newcastle’s best midfielder projects just 17.4 over the six, which doesn’t clear the bar.
Tenth on the board at £5.0m and 2% ownership, which works out at 5.14 expected points per £1m — the best ratio of any player in the game at any position, with second place nowhere near. Oddly, his projection has risen since late July while his ownership drifted from 2.4% down to 2.0%. If you take one name away from this piece, make it his.
The same idea one tier down: £5.0m, 4% owned, twenty-eighth overall. Doubling up on the Newcastle defence for £10.0m total is one of the cheaper ways to cover the soft second half of their run.
Everton, on the gentlest opponents in the league
Palace at home, Bournemouth away, United, Spurs, Ipswich, Hull. Everton are only eighth on λ-diff and they are not a good side, but by average opponent attacking rating no club faces softer names. That margin over Newcastle is thin enough that it flips on a different definition, so treat it as “very soft” rather than “the softest”.
One name to cross off before you start: James Garner is carrying a groin injury with an expected return around 22 August. The model has him at 7.1 over the six weeks on a 0.24 start probability, which rules him out of this conversation entirely.
Twelfth overall, with a 0.82 start probability and the best six-week projection at the club — and yet ownership has almost halved in three weeks, from 17.6% on 23 July to 9.8%. Nothing in his numbers explains the drift.
Fifteenth overall and the attacking route into the same fixture list, with more than double Tarkowski’s goal threat per 90.
Twenty-first on the board, £5.0m, and owned by one manager in sixty. The catch is a 0.73 start probability against Tarkowski’s 0.82, so he is the cheaper and riskier half of the same bet.
How to use this
- Pick one or two soft-run cores. Owning every name here means owning eleven players from six clubs and no money left for a bench.
- The defenders are where the value is this year. Six of the top thirteen six-week projections are defenders, and the cheapest of those six is also the best of them.
- Thiaw at £5.0m and 2% ownership is the single biggest gap between what the model thinks and what the field owns.
- Front-load United for GW1–2 and have an exit route before the City week.
- Cheap promoted-side defenders are still traps. The best of them projects 14.8 over six weeks against Thiaw’s 25.7 at the same price.
Filter by club, sort by horizon expected points, and open any player deep-dive.