Players set to feast on the best opening fixtures
Starters the model expects to cash in at the softest GW1–6 runs — plus Everton, who face the gentlest set of opponents in the division.
Photo: Erling Haaland, 2023 — Jacek Stanislawek / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Soft fixtures only matter if the right players start. After ranking every club’s opening six by model λ-diff, we pulled six-week expected points for likely starters at the five easiest runs: Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool, Man Utd, and Newcastle. We also flag Everton — eighth on λ-diff, but first on opponent softness — the quiet mid-table calendar from the companion fixture note.
Arsenal — cleanest calendar in the league
Coventry, Villa, Chelsea, Sunderland, Brighton, Leeds. The model wants Arsenal defenders heavily involved early: clean-sheet equity stacks with attacking returns from set pieces.
Highest Arsenal H6 xP in the model. Coventry and Leeds at home are textbook set-piece / clean sheet weeks; ownership still leaves room versus the usual premium mids.
The forward route into Arsenal’s run without Haaland money. Minutes risk is the caveat (p_start ~0.73) — watch preseason XI news before locking.
High minutes floor (p_start ~0.90) and a midfield price that still looks like value beside Saka. Less ceiling, more reliability across six weeks.
Man City — soft until Anfield
Still the premium. Five favourable games before Liverpool away. At 64% ownership he is less a differential than a template tax — blank and you bleed rank.
Edges Haaland on six-week xP at less than half the price. Attacking full-back returns plus City’s soft home slate (Bournemouth, Coventry, Sunderland) make him the standout City enabler.
Liverpool — volume through the middle
Highest H6 xP among all starters at the five softest clubs. Locked minutes, midfield returns, and Forest / Ipswich / Fulham after the Newcastle opener.
Defensive premium that is still under-owned relative to the xP. Set-piece threat plus three home fixtures in six (Forest, Fulham, City).
Man Utd — two-week sugar rush
Hull away and Ipswich home are the best GW1–2 pair in the league on λ-diff. Plan the cooling off (Everton, City, Fulham) before Spurs at home.
Near-identical H6 xP to Szoboszlai at half Bruno’s ownership. The differential United mid if you believe the front-loaded fixtures convert.
The nailed premium. Penalties and creativity keep the floor high even when the mid-stretch tightens. Price is the tax.
Newcastle — value after the tough openers
Liverpool and Spurs first — then Bournemouth, Leeds, Hull, Coventry. Hold your nerve through GW2; the model’s xP is back-loaded into the soft half.
Best value defender among the five clubs (4.7 xP per £1m). Tiny ownership, soft second half of the run — classic early differential if minutes stick.
Everton — softest opponents in the league
Palace (H), Bournemouth (A), Man Utd (H), Spurs (A), Ipswich (H), Hull (A). Everton only rank eighth on average λ-diff — they are not a top side — but they face the gentlest set of names in the division. That is the differential calendar: clean sheet equity and midfield returns without a big-six badge.
Highest Everton H6 xP in the model and a locked starter (p_start ~0.90). Ipswich and Hull bookend a run that should yield clean-sheet weeks; set-piece threat keeps the ceiling above a pure CB.
Near-identical minutes floor to Tarkowski at 3.3% ownership. The differential Everton mid if you want volume without Ndiaye’s price competition in drafts — H6 xP sits just behind the Arsenal / Liverpool mid-tier.
The attacking route into the soft slate. Slightly lower H6 xP than Garner but more goal threat; still under-owned relative to the calendar quality.
How to use this
- Build around one or two soft-run cores (Arsenal DEF / City enabler / Liverpool mid) rather than stacking every name here.
- Front-load United exposure for GW1–2; have an exit plan before the City week.
- Everton is the mid-table enabler: Tarkowski or Garner if you want calendar quality without paying for a top-six badge.
- Treat promoted-side cheap defenders as traps until the model’s priors update with real minutes.
Filter by club, sort by horizon expected points, and open any player deep-dive.